National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 121045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain today.

- Strong gusty winds today into tonight.

- Rain shower chances Saturday night into early Sunday.

- Unseasonably warm Sunday into the first half of next week.

- Showers possible as we head toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
...Widespread rain today with strong gusty winds thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Strong winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph
could blow around unsecured objects. Trees and tree limbs could be
blown down and power outages may occur.

Complex low pressure center has reached Lake Erie early this
morning. Deep moisture surging ahead of and rotating around the low
center continues to produce widespread rain across our entire CWA.
Surface winds have begun to strengthen...especially across the SE
half of our CWA as the low level pressure gradient tightens around
that deep low pressure center.

Low center will slowly lift N/NE into SE Ontario today and into
Quebec tonight. Widespread rain will persist across our entire CWA
thru this morning and will then begin to slowly diminish from west
to east this afternoon into this evening as the low center and
associated deep moisture pull further north and east away from
Michigan. While steady rain is expected to continue...do not expect
the remainder of this event will involve heavy rain. Expected QPF
thru this evening should be around a quarter to half an inch.

Winds...on the other hand...will remain an issue thru this evening
as the low level pressure gradient continues to tighten on the back
side of the deep low center as it tracks just east of our state.
N/NW winds will strengthen to 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 40 to 50
mph expected...with the strongest winds likely occurring across NE
Lower Michigan where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Will
certainly maintain all Wind Advisories in effect for all counties
within our CWA for today thru this evening.

High temps today will only warm a few degrees...remaining generally
in the 40s all day. Low temps tonight will cool into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Short lived ridging at the surface and aloft Saturday expected to
lead to partly to mostly sunny skies with residual gusty winds
diminishing through the day. Weak wave/warm advection will lead to
rain shower chances Saturday night into early Sunday. Per model
soundings low levels stay fairly dry (as pointed out by previous
forecaster) so not a whole lot of rain is anticipated. Elevated
instability could lead to a little embedded thunder (mainly from M-
72 on south). Clearing skies and warming temperatures then expected
for the balance of Sunday.

Seasonable temperatures Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Warming back up Sunday with forecast highs ranging from the mid
50s north to the mid and upper 60s south. Lows Saturday night in the
mid 30s to low 40s with lows Sunday night in the cooler low and mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridging is in place to start off the work week which should
mean a precipitation free and fairly warm beginning to the week.
Short waves ejecting out of a long wave Pacific trough will then
bring a few chances for showers as we head farther into the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
Thursday with noticeably cooler temperatures likely just beyond the
scope of this forecast (perhaps even accompanied by a few snow
showers).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Deep low pressure will track just east of Michigan today and
into Quebec tonight. Widespread rain will continue to impact all
Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites this
morning...with a gradual diminish and eventual end to precip
from west to east this afternoon and evening. Mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected today...with some improvement to
MVFR/low VFR tonight as precip comes to an end. NW surface
winds along the back side of that deep low pressure system will
continue to strengthen to 20 to 30 kts...with gust to 40 to 45
kts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure passing east of Michigan will produce gale force
winds along all of our nearshore waters today and into tonight. N/NW
winds will gust to 45 kts at times. Winds will slowly diminish to
SCA criteria later tonight and Saturday as the deep low pressure
system exits into Eastern Canada. Widespread rain will impact our
nearshore areas today...gradually diminishing and eventually ending
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-346-349.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ347-348.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR