341
AXNT20 KNHC 091007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across
central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing
gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and fresh SE winds
over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to
6 ft west of 88W. No significant convection is occurring in the
basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues
to restrict visibility across the western Gulf. In addition,
patchy fog is occurring where sea surface temperatures are lowest,
in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the
Gulf through tonight ahead of a cold front. The cold front will
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and will move
across most of the basin into Sat. The front will slow down and
weaken further, then extend from South Florida to the bay of
Campeche by late Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
follow the front into. Haze due to agricultural fires in
southeastern Mexico persists in the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western
Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean.
The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the
area through tonight, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in
its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east
of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater
Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has
left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across
this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific
information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and
extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is
producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central and SE
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4
to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE
Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible
early next week. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally
strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras into the start
of next week due to the pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

 A pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the trough near 58W, with
moderate to locally fresh winds noted east of the trough between
53W-58W. To the west, mainly gentle southerly flow prevails, but
moderate to fresh SW winds have developed N and W of a line from
South Florida to Bermuda. The trough in the far eastern Atlantic
has dissipated, and this part of the basin is now dominated by an
Azores high, with mainly gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft. S o 20 N, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will
diminish today as the high pressure shifts E. However, as a cold
front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong winds will
develop off northeast Florida, then prevail through Fri night. The
front will move across Florida Sat, bringing moderate to fresh
winds behind it. The front will weaken Sun as it moves east of
65W.

$$
Konarik