129
FXUS61 KBGM 300816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north early this morning, bringing isolated
rain showers and maybe thunderstorms to the area. A cold front
passage this afternoon and evening will bring widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be severe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 am update...

A surface front remains across the area. A weak low and trailing
trough in Steuben County has caused thunderstorms to form. This
system will move east across the area early this morning with
some heavy rain. If any clearing occurs behind it there is a
small window where valley fog could form before sunrise. Mid
level lapse rates are high early this morning providing some
instability. Wind shear is around 30 kts.

For this afternoon and evening WPC still has a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall and SPC still has general thunder.
Thunderstorms later today will have heavy rain, gusty winds, and
small hail. Models agree on a cluster of discrete thunderstorms
forming midday in the central southern tier and Finger Lakes
just ahead of a cold front. This moves east through the
afternoon into early evening before exiting to the east by 8 PM.
Some models show the storms forming a line.

Clearing late this morning will push temperatures into the 70s
creating around 1k of cape. Lapse rates are good but not great.
0 to 6km Bulk shear is 35 to 40 kts. PWATs peak around 1.5
inches providing plenty of moisture. The low level jet is light
though. Some locations could get an inch or two of rain in an
hour which is around current flash flood guidance. There could
be isolated water problems especially in urban areas.
Thunderstorms could combine or aid each other to briefly put
down some damaging winds this afternoon and evening. Given the
lift through a deep area of below freezing air aloft small hail
is likely but large hail would be rare. A marine layer over the
southeast counties this morning could hang on in Sullivan and
Pike Counties. This will keep temperatures cooler and suppress
the thunderstorms late today.

Late tonight through Wednesday will be mainly dry. A few late
day showers are possible over the terrain in the western
Catskills and the Endless Mountains in NEPA. Temperatures late
tonight will fall into the 50s and upper 40s. Wednesday air will
be cooler aloft but more sunshine will counteract that. Highs
will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update...

The short term will be dominated by ridging with temperatures
above average through the period. Forecast soundings continue to
show dry air aloft and a capping inversion that should limit and
showers and thunderstorms. Kept just slight chance for showers
in the Catskills Thursday afternoon, as terrain could help
break the capping in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Ridging should hold until the weekend and then the pattern will
become more active with zonal flow aloft. This will allow for
several weak perturbations to push through from Saturday into
the beginning of next week. Shower chances start to increase on
Saturday as frontal boundary slowly progresses from west to
east across the region. High pressure will be stationed over the
Atlantic and the front will have a hard time progressing
eastward, so rainshowers will likely linger right through
Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal on Friday, however
with the rainshowers expected this weekend, we will see
temperatures return back to normal with highs in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 am update...

Isolated to scattered showers will move through early this
morning. Some MVFR fog and cigs is possible at most sites 9 to
13z. RME already had rain to moisten the low levels this
morning.

After 17z steadier showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Heavier rain could drop vsbys to 2sm in addition to MVFR cigs.
In general cigs will fall to fuel alternate MVFR by 21z.
SYR/RME/BGM/ITH should fall to IFR due to cigs around 21z and
continue through the night.

Winds will be mostly light early this morning. Southwest winds
at 5 to 10 kts early this morning shift to northwest this
evening.

Outlook...

Overnight toNight... Restrictions likely in lingering stratus
and fog.

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible,
becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...TAC