Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
UXUS97 KBOU 271341
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0739 MDT Wednesday, March 27, 2024

This forecast is for Wednesday, March 27, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 42.1 F/5.6 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1502 ft/min (7.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 20705 ft MSL (15379 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 51.0 F/11.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13475 ft MSL (8150 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 03/28..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 24056 ft MSL (18730 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 03/28........ Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:50:11 / 19:18:58 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 28 min 48 sec (748 min 48 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:04:35 MDT... 53.23 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 03/27/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 5552 ft MSL (226 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6655 ft MSL (1329 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13083 ft MSL (7757 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14504 ft MSL (9178 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.5
K index......................... +14.6

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -53.2 -63.8   290   37   19   1.3   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -51.3 -60.3   295   37   19   1.3   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -51.1 -60.0   300   42   21  -0.2  -0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -51.2 -60.2   300   44   23  -0.2  -0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -52.6 -62.7   305   39   20  -2.3  -1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -54.0 -65.2   305   33   17  -2.3  -1.3      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -53.8 -64.8   295   29   15   1.6   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -52.9 -63.2   285   26   14   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 29000  -52.1 -61.8   275   25   13   4.1   2.2   21.0  69.9     7.9      M    M
 28000  -50.9 -59.6   270   24   12   4.0   2.2   18.6  65.5     6.1      M    M
 27000  -49.7 -57.5   265   22   11   4.0   2.2   16.4  61.5     4.5      M    M
 26000  -48.5 -55.3   265   21   11   6.0   3.3   14.4  57.9     3.0      M    M
 25000  -46.3 -51.3   270   21   11   7.1   3.9   13.2  55.8     2.1      M    M
 24000  -44.2 -47.6   275   22   11   7.1   3.9   12.2  54.0     1.3      M    M
 23000  -42.0 -43.6   280   23   12   8.4   4.6   11.4  52.6     0.7      M    M
 22000  -39.4 -38.9   285   22   11   8.8   4.8   11.0  51.8     0.3      M    M
 21000  -36.7 -34.1   290   21   11   8.8   4.8   10.7  51.2     0.1      M    M
 20000  -34.1 -29.4   295   21   11   8.7   4.8   10.4  50.7    -0.2   1437  7.3
 19500  -32.8 -27.0   300   21   11   8.8   4.8   10.2  50.3    -0.4   1383  7.0
 19000  -30.8 -23.4   300   20   11   8.8   4.8    9.9  49.8    -0.6   1302  6.6
 18500  -29.5 -21.1   300   20   10   8.8   4.8    9.8  49.6    -0.7   1248  6.3
 18000  -28.2 -18.8   305   20   10   8.6   4.7    9.6  49.3    -0.9   1194  6.1
 17500  -27.0 -16.6   305   20   10   8.5   4.7    9.4  48.9    -1.1   1141  5.8
 17000  -25.7 -14.3   305   20   10   8.4   4.6    9.2  48.6    -1.3   1088  5.5
 16500  -24.4 -11.9   305   19   10   8.3   4.6    8.9  48.1    -1.5   1036  5.3
 16000  -23.2  -9.8   305   19   10   8.3   4.5    8.7  47.7    -1.8    985  5.0
 15500  -22.0  -7.6   305   18    9   8.2   4.5    8.4  47.2    -2.0    933  4.7
 15000  -20.8  -5.4   305   18    9   8.2   4.5    8.2  46.7    -2.3    882  4.5
 14500  -19.5  -3.1   305   17    9   8.3   4.5    7.9  46.3    -2.5    830  4.2
 14000  -18.3  -0.9   305   17    9   8.3   4.5    7.7  45.8    -2.8    778  4.0
 13500  -17.0   1.4   305   17    9   8.4   4.6    7.5  45.4    -3.0    726  3.7
 13000  -15.8   3.6   305   17    9   8.4   4.6    7.2  45.0    -3.2    673  3.4
 12500  -14.5   5.9   305   17    9   8.6   4.7    7.0  44.7    -3.5    621  3.2
 12000  -13.3   8.1   305   17    9   8.6   4.7    6.8  44.3    -3.7    568  2.9
 11500  -12.0  10.4   305   17    9   8.7   4.8    6.7  44.0    -3.9    514  2.6
 11000  -10.7  12.7   310   17    8   8.8   4.9    6.5  43.7    -4.1    461  2.3
 10500   -9.5  14.9   310   16    8   7.2   3.9    6.2  43.1    -4.4    411  2.1
 10250   -9.0  15.8   310   16    8   6.1   3.4    6.0  42.7    -4.6    388  2.0
 10000   -8.4  16.9   310   17    8  11.0   6.0    5.8  42.4    -4.8    364  1.9
  9750   -7.4  18.7   305   17    9  11.9   6.5    6.1  42.9    -4.5    326  1.7
  9500   -6.8  19.8   305   17    9   7.5   4.1    6.0  42.7    -4.6    300  1.5
  9250   -6.2  20.8   305   17    9   9.1   5.0    5.9  42.6    -4.7    274  1.4
  9000   -5.5  22.1   305   18    9   7.1   3.9    5.8  42.4    -4.9    247  1.3
  8750   -5.0  23.0   305   18    9   7.5   4.1    5.5  41.9    -5.1    225  1.1
  8500   -4.4  24.1   305   19   10   9.2   5.1    5.4  41.8    -5.2    198  1.0
  8250   -3.7  25.3   305   19   10   8.9   4.9    5.4  41.7    -5.3    171  0.9
  8000   -3.1  26.4   305   19   10   7.7   4.2    5.3  41.6    -5.4    144  0.7
  7750   -2.5  27.5   305   20   10   7.6   4.1    5.1  41.2    -5.6    121  0.6
  7500   -1.9  28.6   305   19   10   8.9   4.9    5.0  41.0    -5.7     94  0.5
  7250   -1.3  29.7   300   18    9   7.8   4.3    4.9  40.8    -5.8     68  0.3
  7000   -0.8  30.6   300   17    9   6.0   3.3    4.7  40.4    -6.1     45  0.2
  6750   -0.3  31.5   305   16    8   6.6   3.6    4.4  39.9    -6.4     25  0.1
  6500    0.2  32.4   300   14    7   7.3   4.0    4.2  39.6    -6.6      1  0.0
  6250    0.6  33.1   300   11    6   1.8   1.0    3.9  39.0    -7.0      M    M
  6000    0.5  32.9   300    9    5  -1.9  -1.1    3.1  37.5    -7.8      M    M
  5750    0.4  32.7   295    8    4  -0.1  -0.0    2.2  36.0    -8.7      M    M
  5500    0.2  32.4   275    6    3  -8.3  -4.6    1.3  34.4    -9.6      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/27/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       03/27/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...    +1.7    LI...       +1.5        | CAPE...   +37.3    LI...       +0.7
CINH...    -6.1    K Index...  +9.7        | CINH...    -5.9    K Index...  +6.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.4 -64.1  290  34 18   1.0   0.5 | -54.4 -65.9  285  36 18   0.5   0.3
 45000 -52.0 -61.6  300  40 21   1.0   0.5 | -53.6 -64.5  300  46 24   0.5   0.3
 40000 -52.1 -61.8  310  46 24  -0.3  -0.2 | -54.0 -65.2  315  54 28  -0.4  -0.2
 38000 -52.4 -62.3  315  49 25  -1.0  -0.6 | -54.2 -65.6  320  58 30  -0.3  -0.2
 36000 -53.2 -63.8  320  47 24  -1.4  -0.8 | -54.4 -65.9  325  64 33  -0.3  -0.2
 34000 -54.0 -65.2  320  44 23  -1.4  -0.8 | -54.6 -66.3  325  70 36  -0.2  -0.1
 32000 -53.3 -63.9  330  40 21   2.7   1.5 | -53.4 -64.1  325  65 34   3.0   1.7
 30000 -51.7 -61.1  335  36 18   2.7   1.5 | -51.3 -60.3  325  55 28   2.6   1.4
 29000 -50.3 -58.5  340  34 17   4.5   2.5 | -49.7 -57.5  325  51 26   6.3   3.4
 28000 -49.0 -56.2  340  32 17   4.5   2.5 | -47.8 -54.0  325  47 24   6.2   3.4
 27000 -47.6 -53.7  340  31 16   4.5   2.5 | -46.0 -50.8  325  43 22   6.2   3.4
 26000 -46.2 -51.2  340  29 15   5.5   3.0 | -44.0 -47.2  325  40 20   7.1   3.9
 25000 -44.6 -48.3  325  25 13   5.5   3.0 | -41.9 -43.4  320  36 19   7.0   3.9
 24000 -42.9 -45.2  310  23 12   5.4   3.0 | -39.8 -39.6  320  33 17   7.0   3.9
 23000 -41.1 -42.0  300  21 11   8.0   4.4 | -37.8 -36.0  320  30 15   6.2   3.4
 22000 -38.8 -37.8  295  20 10   7.8   4.3 | -35.9 -32.6  315  27 14   6.3   3.4
 21000 -36.5 -33.7  295  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -34.0 -29.2  310  25 13   6.3   3.4
 20000 -34.0 -29.2  295  18  9   8.9   4.9 | -32.0 -25.6  305  23 12   7.0   3.8
 19500 -32.7 -26.9  295  18  9   8.9   4.9 | -31.0 -23.8  305  22 11   7.0   3.8
 19000 -31.4 -24.5  295  18  9   8.9   4.9 | -29.9 -21.8  300  21 11   7.0   3.8
 18500 -30.0 -22.0  295  18  9   8.9   4.9 | -28.9 -20.0  300  21 11   7.0   3.8
 18000 -28.7 -19.7  295  18  9   8.7   4.8 | -27.8 -18.0  295  20 10   7.4   4.1
 17500 -27.4 -17.3  295  18  9   8.5   4.7 | -26.7 -16.1  295  19 10   7.6   4.1
 17000 -26.2 -15.2  295  18  9   8.5   4.7 | -25.6 -14.1  290  18  9   7.6   4.2
 16500 -24.9 -12.8  300  18  9   8.3   4.5 | -23.8 -10.8  290  17  9   7.7   4.2
 16000 -23.1  -9.6  305  17  9   8.2   4.5 | -22.7  -8.9  290  16  8   7.6   4.2
 15500 -21.9  -7.4  305  17  9   8.2   4.5 | -21.6  -6.9  295  15  8   7.6   4.2
 15000 -20.6  -5.1  310  17  9   8.1   4.5 | -20.4  -4.7  300  14  7   7.7   4.2
 14500 -19.4  -2.9  310  17  9   8.0   4.4 | -19.3  -2.7  305  14  7   8.0   4.4
 14000 -18.3  -0.9  315  17  9   8.1   4.4 | -18.1  -0.6  310  14  7   8.0   4.4
 13500 -17.0   1.4  315  18  9   8.3   4.6 | -16.9   1.6  310  15  8   8.4   4.6
 13000 -15.8   3.6  315  18  9   8.3   4.6 | -15.6   3.9  310  16  8   8.5   4.6
 12500 -14.6   5.7  315  19 10   8.0   4.4 | -14.3   6.3  305  16  8   8.9   4.9
 12000 -13.4   7.9  315  19 10   8.1   4.4 | -13.0   8.6  305  16  8   8.9   4.9
 11500 -12.2  10.0  315  19 10   8.3   4.5 | -11.7  10.9  305  16  8   9.1   5.0
 11000 -11.0  12.2  315  20 10   8.2   4.5 | -10.3  13.5  305  16  8   9.0   4.9
 10500  -9.8  14.4  315  19 10   7.8   4.3 |  -9.0  15.8  305  16  8   8.6   4.7
 10250  -9.2  15.4  315  19 10   8.8   4.8 |  -8.4  16.9  305  16  8   9.7   5.3
 10000  -8.6  16.5  310  19 10   5.1   2.8 |  -7.7  18.1  305  16  8   5.6   3.1
  9750  -8.3  17.1  315  19 10   6.2   3.4 |  -7.4  18.7  305  15  8   6.9   3.8
  9500  -7.6  18.3  310  18  9  10.5   5.8 |  -6.6  20.1  305  15  8  12.0   6.6
  9250  -6.9  19.6  310  18  9   9.9   5.4 |  -5.8  21.6  305  15  8  10.3   5.6
  9000  -6.2  20.8  310  18  9   7.1   3.9 |  -5.1  22.8  305  15  8   7.6   4.1
  8750  -5.8  21.6  310  17  9   7.2   3.9 |  -4.6  23.7  305  14  7   8.4   4.6
  8500  -5.0  23.0  310  17  9  10.4   5.7 |  -3.8  25.2  305  14  7  11.4   6.3
  8250  -4.3  24.3  310  16  8   9.1   5.0 |  -3.0  26.6  305  14  7   9.6   5.2
  8000  -3.7  25.3  310  16  8   7.3   4.0 |  -2.4  27.7  305  13  7   7.4   4.1
  7750  -3.2  26.2  310  15  8   8.3   4.6 |  -1.8  28.8  305  12  6   9.5   5.2
  7500  -2.4  27.7  305  15  8  10.7   5.9 |  -1.0  30.2  305  12  6  11.4   6.3
  7250  -1.7  28.9  305  15  8   8.3   4.6 |  -0.2  31.6  305  12  6   8.8   4.8
  7000  -1.2  29.8  305  14  7   5.8   3.2 |   0.3  32.5  305  11  6   5.9   3.3
  6750  -0.7  30.7  305  14  7   8.8   4.8 |   0.9  33.6  305  10  5  10.9   6.0
  6500   0.0  32.0  300  13  7   9.1   5.0 |   1.9  35.4  300  10  5  12.9   7.1
  6250   0.5  32.9  300  11  6   5.7   3.1 |   2.6  36.7  300  10  5   9.6   5.3
  6000   0.9  33.6  295  10  5   5.0   2.7 |   3.4  38.1  300   9  5   9.1   5.0
  5750   1.3  34.3  290   8  4   6.1   3.4 |   4.1  39.4  300   8  4  12.2   6.7
  5500   1.8  35.2  285   7  4   8.0   4.4 |   5.3  41.5  300   8  4  21.6  11.8

           03/27/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       03/27/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...   +73.6    LI...       -0.1        | CAPE...   +34.5    LI...       +2.2
CINH...    -6.3    K Index... +11.2        | CINH...   -14.8    K Index... +11.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.0 -67.0  290  42 22   0.5   0.3 | -56.1 -69.0  285  45 23   1.1   0.6
 45000 -54.2 -65.6  300  46 23   0.5   0.3 | -54.4 -65.9  295  57 29   1.0   0.5
 40000 -56.3 -69.3  310  65 33  -1.7  -0.9 | -59.4 -74.9  310  77 40  -3.9  -2.1
 38000 -57.1 -70.8  315  74 38   1.2   0.6 | -60.9 -77.6  315  87 45   4.0   2.2
 36000 -56.6 -69.9  320  87 45   0.9   0.5 | -58.7 -73.7  320  98 50   3.6   2.0
 34000 -56.0 -68.8  330 101 52   0.7   0.4 | -56.5 -69.7  320 108 56   3.2   1.8
 32000 -52.5 -62.5  330  99 51   6.3   3.5 | -51.9 -61.4  320  99 51   7.3   4.0
 30000 -48.7 -55.7  330  94 48   6.4   3.5 | -47.5 -53.5  325  88 45   7.0   3.8
 29000 -46.7 -52.1  330  87 45   6.6   3.6 | -45.5 -49.9  325  83 43   6.7   3.7
 28000 -44.7 -48.5  330  79 41   6.6   3.6 | -43.6 -46.5  325  77 40   6.7   3.7
 27000 -42.7 -44.9  330  71 37   6.6   3.6 | -41.6 -42.9  320  72 37   6.6   3.6
 26000 -40.8 -41.4  330  64 33   6.3   3.5 | -39.3 -38.7  320  68 35   7.9   4.3
 25000 -38.9 -38.0  325  57 29   6.3   3.5 | -37.0 -34.6  325  66 34   7.9   4.3
 24000 -37.0 -34.6  325  50 26   6.3   3.5 | -34.6 -30.3  325  64 33   7.9   4.3
 23000 -35.2 -31.4  320  43 22   6.0   3.3 | -32.3 -26.1  325  62 32   7.5   4.1
 22000 -33.4 -28.1  315  38 19   6.0   3.3 | -30.0 -22.0  325  58 30   7.5   4.1
 21000 -31.6 -24.9  310  33 17   6.1   3.3 | -27.8 -18.0  325  55 28   8.0   4.4
 20000 -30.0 -22.0  305  29 15   4.9   2.7 | -26.4 -15.5  325  48 25   3.8   2.1
 19500 -29.2 -20.6  300  27 14   5.0   2.7 | -25.8 -14.4  325  43 22   3.8   2.1
 19000 -28.5 -19.3  300  25 13   5.0   2.7 | -25.2 -13.4  320  39 20   3.8   2.1
 18500 -27.8 -18.0  295  24 12   4.9   2.7 | -24.7 -12.5  320  35 18   3.9   2.1
 18000 -27.0 -16.6  295  22 11   5.8   3.2 | -24.1 -11.4  315  31 16   3.2   1.8
 17500 -26.1 -15.0  290  21 11   6.0   3.3 | -23.7 -10.7  310  27 14   3.3   1.8
 17000 -25.3 -13.5  290  20 10   7.2   4.0 | -22.7  -8.9  295  23 12   6.3   3.5
 16500 -24.0 -11.2  290  20 10   8.6   4.7 | -21.9  -7.4  290  22 11   6.0   3.3
 16000 -22.0  -7.6  290  19 10   9.0   4.9 | -20.9  -5.6  285  21 11   7.9   4.3
 15500 -20.7  -5.3  290  19 10   9.1   5.0 | -19.7  -3.5  285  21 11   8.3   4.5
 15000 -19.3  -2.7  290  19 10   9.0   5.0 | -18.4  -1.1  280  21 11   8.4   4.6
 14500 -18.0  -0.4  290  19 10   9.0   4.9 | -17.2   1.0  280  20 10   8.4   4.6
 14000 -16.7   1.9  290  19 10   9.0   4.9 | -16.0   3.2  280  20 10   8.7   4.8
 13500 -15.3   4.5  290  19 10   8.9   4.9 | -14.6   5.7  280  19 10   9.0   5.0
 13000 -14.0   6.8  290  19 10   8.9   4.9 | -13.3   8.1  285  19 10   9.1   5.0
 12500 -12.7   9.1  290  19 10   9.1   5.0 | -11.9  10.6  285  19 10   9.1   5.0
 12000 -11.3  11.7  290  18  9   9.1   5.0 | -10.5  13.1  285  19 10   9.1   5.0
 11500  -9.9  14.2  290  18  9   9.3   5.1 |  -9.2  15.4  285  19 10   9.0   4.9
 11000  -8.5  16.7  290  17  9   9.3   5.1 |  -7.8  18.0  290  18 10   9.0   4.9
 10500  -7.2  19.0  295  17  9   9.5   5.2 |  -6.5  20.3  290  18  9   9.3   5.1
 10250  -6.5  20.3  295  17  8   8.7   4.8 |  -5.8  21.6  290  18  9   7.9   4.3
 10000  -5.9  21.4  295  16  8   5.6   3.1 |  -5.4  22.3  290  18  9   5.3   2.9
  9750  -5.5  22.1  295  15  8   8.5   4.7 |  -4.9  23.2  295  18  9   8.8   4.8
  9500  -4.6  23.7  295  15  8  12.6   6.9 |  -4.1  24.6  295  18  9  12.2   6.7
  9250  -3.8  25.2  295  15  8  10.3   5.7 |  -3.2  26.2  295  17  9  10.0   5.5
  9000  -3.1  26.4  295  15  7   7.4   4.1 |  -2.6  27.3  295  17  9   7.0   3.9
  8750  -2.5  27.5  295  14  7   8.8   4.9 |  -2.1  28.2  295  17  9   8.6   4.7
  8500  -1.7  28.9  295  13  7  11.7   6.4 |  -1.3  29.7  295  16  8  11.5   6.3
  8250  -0.9  30.4  295  13  7   9.2   5.0 |  -0.5  31.1  295  16  8   8.8   4.8
  8000  -0.4  31.3  295  12  6   6.6   3.6 |   0.0  32.0  295  16  8   6.0   3.3
  7750   0.2  32.4  295  11  6   9.2   5.0 |   0.6  33.1  295  15  8   9.3   5.1
  7500   1.0  33.8  295  11  6  11.0   6.0 |   1.4  34.5  290  14  7  11.4   6.2
  7250   1.7  35.1  290  11  6   9.1   5.0 |   2.1  35.8  290  13  7   8.4   4.6
  7000   2.3  36.1  295  11  6   7.1   3.9 |   2.6  36.7  290  13  7   5.6   3.1
  6750   2.9  37.2  295  11  5  11.5   6.3 |   3.1  37.6  290  13  7  11.1   6.1
  6500   3.9  39.0  295  10  5  12.7   7.0 |   4.2  39.6  290  12  6  12.7   6.9
  6250   4.7  40.5  295  10  5   9.6   5.3 |   4.9  40.8  290  12  6   8.5   4.7
  6000   5.4  41.7  295  10  5   9.2   5.1 |   5.5  41.9  290  12  6   8.7   4.8
  5750   6.2  43.2  295   9  5  12.4   6.8 |   6.2  43.2  290  11  6  10.3   5.7
  5500   7.4  45.3  295   9  4  22.0  12.1 |   7.1  44.8  290   9  5  14.4   7.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.