Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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077 FXUS64 KBRO 041139 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 639 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The main event in the short term continues to be the above normal temperatures. Highs today and Sunday will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 70s. Additionally, deep low level moisture and light winds may support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas around daybreak. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies this morning may become partly sunny during the afternoon before clouds return again this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could potentially drift southward into Northern Ranchlands on Sunday and SPC has the aforementioned areas in a general thunderstorm outlook. Moderate seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today through Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Building and sustained intense heat continues to be the main concern during this portion of the total forecast. Steadily rising daytime highs will occur throughout the period, with well above normal values likely in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. Temperatures will near, and possibly even meet, established HEAT ADVISORY criteria on Tuesday, and may well surpass the threshold on Wednesday and Thursday as a dryline nudges into the BRO CWFA from the west. Additionally, an enhanced pressure gradient will produce a breezy to windy onshore flow, providing some measure of relief from the heat, especially in shaded areas. However, the strength of the wind will not near or exceed established WIND ADVISORY criteria. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that low MVFR cloud decks have pushed farther westward. Short term model guidance suggests that VFR ceilings should continue through the morning. Therefore, generally VFR conditions are expected this morning into the afternoon with moderate to gusty southeast winds. MVFR ceilings return this evening into the overnight hours. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Moderate southeast winds and moderate to sometimes higher seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may occur at times. (Sunday Night through Friday) An enhanced pressure gradient continues to be anticipated over the western Gulf of Mexico throughout the period. Breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, with both Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 91 75 92 74 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 93 77 94 77 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 77 82 77 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 75 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...63-KC