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979
FXUS61 KBUF 220625
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another unseasonably mild day today with a greater chance of showers
and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region. Some of
these storms may be strong with gusty winds possible and heavy rain.
Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the
first part of the Memorial Day weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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All is quite tonight with moonlit skies. Warm night expected with
lows only falling back into the mid to upper 60s by sunrise.

SPC has expanded the slight risk for severe weather today which
encompasses all of Western and North Central NY.

All the ingredients appear to be coming together for an active
weather day today with strong to severe storms possible. Diurnal
heating ahead of an approaching cold front will push temperatures
well into the 80s near 90F by this afternoon. As the heat
builds...so will SBCAPE values which will near 2000 j/kg. Increasing
shear profiles also suggest the potential for damaging winds and
hail, with even a small corridor of enhanced low level helicity
across southwest New York possibly favoring a few rotating cells.
Additionally...with PW values in the range of 1.75" to 2.00" any of
the stronger cells will `likely` have the potential to produce very
heavy rain. While flash flooding isn`t the main concern it can`t be
ruled out. That being said...the HRRR and most mesoscale guidance
brings convection into Western NY between 1-3 p.m with the arrival
of the pre-frontal trough. A well developed line of storm is then
advertised to move eastward into the eastern Lake Ontario region
after 5 p.m.

After this first wave of storms moves east...a secondary batch of
less developed storms is possible just ahead and along the cold
front this evening into tonight. Showers and storms will exit to our
east overnight or by early Thursday morning and then we should see
dry quiet weather return to the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Closed mid-level low centered over the central portions of the
Ontario province will become vertically stacked by Wednesday night
with its surface low. As this low pressure system weakens, its
associated cold front draped southward across the lower Great Lakes
will continue to progress eastward across western and north central
NY. This being said heading into Wednesday night, showers and a few
thunderstorms will linger into the evening hours, though the
potential for severe thunderstorms will diminish shortly after
sunset due to the loss in diurnal heating and instability. The front
will then cross Wednesday night and continue to support showers
inland from the lakes. By Thursday morning the vast majority of
shower activity should be to the southeast of the area, as dry air
from the next incoming surface high advances east towards the area
resulting in dry conditions across the region.

As surface high pressure pushes east across the area Thursday
through Friday, associated subsidence will support dry weather
persist. Though dry, it will be `cooler` in the wake of the cold
front Thursday and Friday with highs ranging in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next mid-level trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will support a surface low to push northeast across the eastern
Great Lakes into southern Canada Saturday. This will support a warm
front to advance towards the region ahead of the surface low,
resulting in an increase in shower potential Friday night and last
through Saturday night.

A brief interlude in shower activity for the Memorial Day weekend on
Sunday as high pressure slides east across the region.

Showers return late Sunday night and linger through Monday as
another upper level trough and associated surface low pushes across
the Ohio Valley towards the lower Great Lakes.

Temperatures for the period will be near normal with high
temperatures ranging in the low to upper 70s for most of the area
and cooler temperatures across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR to continue at all area terminals through this morning.

A cold front will near the region today bringing increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe producing strong gusty winds, hail, and very heavy
rain. With any of the showers or storms brief restrictions will be
possible at terminals.

Showers and storms will continue into this evening and tonight as
the cold front arrives and then works east through the area.

Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Modest south to southwest winds will develop today but conditions
will likely remain below small craft levels. That said...a cold
front will approach from the west with showers and thunderstorms
blossoming this afternoon through this evening. Some of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds and
hail.

With the frontal passage tonight showers and storms will diminish
from west to east. After that...surface high pressure will build
into the region for Thursday providing light winds and minimal wave
action as we head towards the Memorial day weekend.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR