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106
FXUS61 KBUF 221808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another unseasonably warm day today with an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe with strong gusty
winds, hail and heavy rain. Cooler more comfortable weather can
be expected Thursday into the first part of the Memorial Day
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SPC has maintained the slight risk for severe weather this afternoon
and evening for all of Western and North Central NY.

All the ingredients appear to be coming together for an active
weather day this afternoon and evening with strong to severe storms
possible. Diurnal heating ahead of an approaching cold front will
push temperatures well into the 80s near 90F this afternoon. As the
heat builds, SBCAPE values will reach to near 2000 j/kg. Shear
profiles will increase with the approach of a shortwave trough,
pushing into the Great Lakes, suggesting the potential for
damaging winds and hail, with even a small corridor of enhanced
low level helicity across southwest New York possibly favoring a
few rotating cells. Additionally, with precipitable water values
in the 1.50" to 2.00" range will `likely` have the potential to
produce very heavy rain. While flash flooding isn`t the main
concern it can`t be ruled out. That being said, the HRRR and
most mesoscale guidance brings convection into western New York
between 1-3 pm with the arrival of the pre-frontal trough,
although there is some uncertainty on how organized this
activity will be. This activity should become more organized as
it shifts east through the afternoon into early this evening.

After this first wave of storms moves east...a secondary batch of
less developed storms is possible just ahead and along the cold
front late this evening into tonight. Showers and storms will exit
to our east overnight or by early Thursday morning and then we
should see dry quiet weather return to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Quiet weather expected Thursday night as a ridge approaches with the
region remaining in between synoptic systems on the north and
southeast sides. Lows on Thursday night will dip down to the low to
mid 50s across the entire area. Dry conditions continue Friday as
the ridge axis continue to slowly build over the region.
Temperatures will range from near 70 over the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the lower
elevations south of Lake Ontario.

Friday night, the ridge will continue to slowly approach and cross
the region. Behind the passing ridge, a warm front approaching from
the Ohio Valley will start to increase the potential for showers
during the second half of the night. There is some timing
uncertainty among guidance with the speed of the ridge crossing the
region. Some models have the ridge moving through slower and showers
not moving in until later in the day on Saturday, while other
forecast guidance is a bit quicker with the showers moving into
western New York a few hours before daybreak.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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There will be a pattern shift into next week as an upper level
trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes region. This will
bring a period of unsettled weather including the chance for showers
and thunderstorms and cooler weather towards mid-week.

Surface high pressure will lead to dry weather across the forecast
area Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday night and
showers with the chance for thunderstorms will move into the region.
An area of low pressure is forecast to track northwest of the
forecast area Monday through Monday night. The best chance for rain
will be Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across the
region. There is a risk of a few strong storms Monday, however
confidence is low due to high uncertainty in evolution of this
system. Confidence is higher that cooler air will move into the
region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel much cooler due to
the recent warm stretch, however temperatures will be only a few
degrees below normal.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday due to an upper low nearby. The best chance will be in the
afternoon through early evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough will enter western New York early this
afternoon bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms could become strong to
severe producing strong gusty winds, hail, and very heavy rain.
With any of the showers or storms brief restrictions will be
possible at area terminals.

Showers and storms will continue into this evening and tonight as
the cold front arrives and then works east through the area.

Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest south to southwest winds will develop today but conditions
will likely remain below small craft levels. That said...a cold
front will approach from the west with showers and thunderstorms
blossoming this afternoon through this evening. Some of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds and
hail.

With the frontal passage tonight showers and storms will diminish
from west to east. After that...surface high pressure will build
into the region for Thursday providing light winds and minimal wave
action as we head towards the Memorial day weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR