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739
FXUS61 KBUF 110801
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cool and unsettled weather will remain in place through the weekend.
Mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers will persist across
north central NY today. Further west, dry conditions this morning
will turn wet as a cold front moves through the region this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening. Showers will linger across the region tonight into Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with valley fog across
interior portions of western NY this morning. It is quite the
opposite east of Rochester/Genesee Valley where clouds and pesky
showers persist across the region.

Moisture and remnants from a departing upper trough continue to
support light showers east of Lake Ontario this morning. A downward
trend should continue this morning, however pooled moisture and
daytime heating will likely cause showers to redevelop by late
morning. A shortwave ridge is across the forecast area this morning.
Light winds and clear skies led to radiational cooling across
interior portions of western NY overnight. Valley fog will dissipate
by mid-morning. Attention turns to a robust shortwave trough across
the Upper Great Lakes region this morning. An associated surface low
near Gaylord, Michigan with a trailing cold front will move east
today. Regional radar shows an area of showers with a few
thunderstorms along the cold front. Modest moisture and strong lift
will shift east and showers will hold together and enter western NY
between 12-4PM today. SPC HREF and forecast soundings show weak
instability developing today and a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out across western to central NY. The system will begin to weaken
and showers and any thunderstorms will move into the Finger Lakes
region and north central NY into early evening. Cool today with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The surface low will continue to weaken as it moves into western NY
tonight. Showers will become disorganized but linger overnight. It
looks like some drier air moves into the Niagara Frontier late
tonight which may give some breaks in the cloud cover but overall, a
cloudy night. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning as a mid-level low
crosses the region. Showers will diminish from west to east as the
mid-level vacates the region Sunday afternoon/evening. A cooler
airmass will linger across the region will afternoon highs only
reaching the lower 60s, with upper 50s across higher terrain.

Dry weather returns Sunday night as shortwave ridging builds in
behind the departing mid-level low. Warmer conditions develop Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s within the warm sector. The nearing cold front will
increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing and
diurnal instability increase. Showers and thunderstorms chances will
continue Monday night as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning
will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to
the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday
night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday
morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central
Plains Friday.

Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area
Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold
front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday,
supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass
across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the
area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead.

As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great
Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the
eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday
night thorugh much of Thursday.

The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through
Friday as warm front approaches the area.

Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with
subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures
will have rebounded to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions across western and north central NY this
morning. Valley fog has developing across interior portions of the
western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region and IFR conditions and
has recently moved into KJHW. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are
likely at KJHW through daybreak. Further northeast, ceilings should
stay above 5k feet at KART overnight, however nearby sites (KGTB)
closer to the Tug Hill are MVFR.

A cold front will approach the region Saturday. Regional radar shows
an area of showers and thunderstorms across Lower Michigan late
tonight. This activity will likely expand as it moves into western
NY Saturday afternoon. Additional showers will develop across north
central NY Saturday ahead of the front. VFR conditions will
deteriorate as showers move into western NY Saturday afternoon.
Widespread MVFR conditions are most likely with IFR conditions
across the higher terrain including KJHW late Saturday evening. VFR
conditions will likely remain at KART for much of Saturday. Flight
conditions will likely become MVFR late Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in
coverage.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and
possible thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting.
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&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule
through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced
southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front
approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JM/TMA