044
FXUS61 KBUF 300548
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making
its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our
period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common
along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated
with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes
will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease a stalled
frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario with a few lingering
showers possible east of Lake Ontario. After 3 am, we will have
to start watching to our northwest where showers and storms
associated with the approaching cold front will start to enter
western New York.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While
the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with
little fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather
and mild conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake
Ontario to low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes
through Wednesday night but again lacks any support or moisture,
so dry conditions will likely continue. This same front then
returns north on Thursday but will likely not bring any showers
to the region. Weak high pressure will be in place Thursday
night which will maintain dry conditions through the end of this
period. Temperatures will remain above normal Thursday with
highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the
forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance
for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on
Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to
move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing
of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances
for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain
above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stationary front lies across western NY with a light northeast
flow on the north side of the front. The front will move north
overnight with clouds and showers developing from the Finger Lakes
region northward. To the west, a cold front extends from Lower
Michigan to Indiana with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms
ahead of it. This front will approach the region overnight, however
most of the showers will remain northwest of the region. There is
greater confidence in some showers brushing KIAG and KBUF after 09z.
Ceilings will lower from the west with MVFR/IFR conditions across
most of the region by daybreak Tuesday.

The cold front will move across the entire region Tuesday with
steady, light to moderate showers moving west to east through the
day. Flight conditions will remain IFR or lower through Tuesday.
There is low confidence in any thunderstorms developing.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak.

There will periodic showers or thunderstorms Tuesday before dry
weather returns for the mid week period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/JM/Thomas/TMA