Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 212013
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure across the region this weekend will move
east off the New England coast Monday. This will usher in a
welcome period of dry weather with day to day warming that will
last through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region through Sunday. There
will be mostly sunny skies for the remainder of this afternoon
with just some thin cirrus across far western New York.
Temperatures will generally peak in the lower to mid 50s this
afternoon, except it will be cooler across higher terrain and
near the lakeshores.

Tonight, the clear skies, light winds and dry airmass will support
good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s inland
to the low 30s across the lake plains.

Expect more of the same on Sunday, except that the air mass will be
warmer which will support high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer.
Lake breezes will again influence temperatures, but a weak
northeast gradient flow will enhance the lake breeze south of
the lakes while suppressing the southwesterly flow which
typically develops northeast of the lakes. As a result, Sunday
should be much warmer across most of the Buffalo metro area.

The forecast weights high resolution mesoscale guidance, which best
captures the lake breezes and temperature differences associated
with them.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A vast area of high pressure will be across the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic Sunday night. Dry conditions will continue into the start
of the work week as an upper level ridge moves overhead. A southerly
flow and full sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the 60s
on Monday. Interior valleys will reach the mid to upper 60s while
the lake shores will likely experience a lake breeze by afternoon
keeping them cooler.

A nearly stationary, stacked low over the lower TN Valley and
southeast U.S. will get dislodged by an incoming shortwave trough
from the northern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday. The stacked
system will begin to move northward towards the Ohio Valley and mid-
high level clouds will increase from southwest to northeast across
Western NY and the North Country. As high pressure moves off the
east coast, moisture advection will increase across the eastern
Great Lakes. Rain showers are expected to move into Western NY
Tuesday morning and spread across the forecast area by Tuesday
night. During this time, the closed low will become an open wave and
phase with an elongated trough stemming from Hudson Bay down into
the Central Plains.

Temperatures will remain elevated with high temperatures in the 60s
Tuesday. Confidence is lower regarding the lake breeze Tuesday.
Southeast winds will be slightly elevated and may inhibit the
forward progression of the lake breeze. Clouds will also be
thickening during the day Tuesday which may keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The phasing mentioned above will bring about a return to longwave
troughing across the eastern CONUS, and yield a return to an
unsettled and wetter weather, eventually being reinforced by a
secondary shortwave out of northern Canada late week. Models
continuing to struggle with the handling of the surface low
working north along the east coast associated with the lead
shortwave. Therefore, will lean more heavily on the ensemble
means to try an account for some of these differences.

Ensemble means favoring the surface low to track north from the
Mid Atlantic coast into southern New England from Wednesday
through Thursday. Better moisture and forcing to the north of
the low will focus a period of showers across the region during
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The shower activity should taper back from west to east Thursday as
the surface low pushes farther into New England. There may be a
brief period of dry weather later Thursday into Friday as some
ridging develops behind the wave moving into New England and the
incoming reinforcing shortwave. This secondary shortwave will
send a cold front into the region some time Friday with
additional chances for showers which may linger through
Saturday.

The overall temperatures trend through the period will be for
temperatures at or above normal during the mid week period, but
falling to below normal levels late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail across the area through Sunday.
High pressure across the region will result in mainly clear
skies and light winds which will be influenced by afternoon lake
breezes.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the Lower Great Lakes this weekend will slowly
drift east early next week. Winds will generally be light during
this period, influenced by afternoon lake breezes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel



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