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000
FXUS62 KCAE 150010
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the
southeastern states during the first part of the week resulting
in warm and dry conditions. The ridge will weaken mid-week as a
pair of cold fronts approach the area bringing the potential
for showers and thunderstorms especially by next weekend.
Temperatures will be above to well above normal through most of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fair. Some mid-level clouds will move in across the CSRA and a
strong low- level jet will develop across the area. The
combination of these things should lead to warmer temps in the
mid to upper 50s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...Upper ridge centered over the Gulf of
Mexico will build northeast over the area. Surface ridge
over Florida into the Atlantic will shift a little to the east
through the day. Moisture remains limited with precipitable
water 1 inch or less. With heights rising aloft, expect
subsidence, moderately strong diabatic heating and warm
advection, therefore temperatures should rise into the mid to
upper 80s. A few clouds may move southeast from the Mountains
into the north Midlands late in the day or evening otherwise
mostly clear. Upper trough over eastern Canada will move east
and amplify a bit. In response, A surface pressure ridge over
the Ohio Valley will move southeast and build south through the
Mid Atlantic region and a "back door" weak cold front will move
into North Carolina during the evening. Any showers should be
focused near the front or in the mountains. So pops remain quite
low. Guidance low temps consistent and should continue to
moderate as moisture slowly increases. Lows around 60.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The front in North Carolina will
move back north as a warm front. This is in response to low
pressure in the northern Plains moving to the northeast toward
the Great Lakes. The upper heights continue to rise although the
ridge appears somewhat flat. Some weak short waves likely to
move over the ridge, so more mid and high level clouds expected
especially late in the day and overnight. Temperatures similar
to Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows around
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models have been fairly consistent with the ridge weakening
Wednesday as the upper low in the upper Midwest amplifies into
the Mississippi Valley and surface low deepens a bit moving into
the Great Lakes area. The surface ridge offshore appears to
build inland a bit in the morning but weaker in the afternoon as
a Piedmont trough develops. So, the air mass does continue to
moisten a bit but mainly mid and high level clouds expected
Wednesday and continued a dry forecast with any showers
remaining to the northwest, in the Upstate and Carolina
mountains. With more clouds temps should be slightly cooler
than previous days. The ensembles have been consistent with
showing the upper flow becoming more zonal across the southeast
U.S. late week with low amplitude upper trough over the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes and south central Canada. But details a
little more uncertain with timing and run-run inconsistency
noted in the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM runs. A weak front
appears to move into the area Thursday but forcing limited for
showers and the NBM pops are quite low now through Friday. The
main cold front may be delayed until next weekend given the
ensembles showing the upper trough to the north being low
amplitude. The latest deterministic 12z GFS is slowing front
down similar to 00z ECMWF more in line with ensembles. The
front may be delayed moving into the region until Sunday. At
some point expect unsettled conditions, either over next weekend
or beyond as the front hangs up. With slower front,
temperatures expected to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr forecast period.

Surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico
will continue to dominate our weather through Monday. A 25 knot
southwesterly low level jet should keep surface winds mixed
enough to keep winds up around 5 knots or so. Some higher clouds
associated with a passing upper shortwave will move over the
area but no impacts expected. Winds should pick back up around
15z from the southwest around 10 knots with some gusts up to 20
knots through the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$