035
FXUS62 KCHS 290219
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1019 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through late Tuesday. A weak cold front
could approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mainly clear skies across the area late this evening as offshore
high remains in control with the mainly ridge axis extending
back over South Carolina. Efficient radiational cooling ongoing
with temps now into the lower to mid 60s across most areas not
immediately adjacent to the water. Lows still likely to dip
into the mid 50s inland to low-mid 60s near beaches. Approaching
daybreak, there remains sufficient low-level moisture to
produce some stratus or stratocumulus within a light onshore
flow mainly across southeast GA, while more pronounced lower-to-
mid level subsidence could bring some patchy, shallow fog for
sheltered areas across much of inland southeast South Carolina.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging aloft will prevail on Monday, while at the surface the
region will be positioned under the western periphery of high
pressure centered over the Atlantic waters. Quiet weather is
expected on Monday, with high temperatures reaching into the upper
70s directly along the beaches and low to mid 80s elsewhere.

The ridging aloft will shift offshore on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough ripples across the southeastern states. Models are indicating
that the shortwave will possess enough forcing and moisture to spur
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening, mainly across inland locations. High
temperatures will once again reach into the low to mid 80s.

Weak ridging aloft will build back into the region on Wednesday as
the shortwave ejects off the Mid Atlantic coast. A well defined sea
breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon hours, which could
spawn isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will continue to warm, with highs reaching into the upper 80s away
from the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridging to almost zonal flow will develop aloft, while high
pressure prevails at the surface. Another shortwave trough is
forecast to swing across the southeastern states Friday, possibly
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
region. Otherwise, quiet conditions with above normal temperatures
are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18Z Monday. The surface ridge axis overhead should keep
the potential for MVFR ceilings mainly south of KSAV. Clear
skies and calm winds will bring the potential for some patchy,
shallow fog inland through the pre-dawn hours Monday, but vis
restrictions are unlikely (<10% chance) at any of the TAF
terminals. Light winds trend more southerly on Monday with
continued dry conditions and limited cloud cover.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic will
extend across local waters, resulting in mainly quiet weather
conditions. Light to moderate SE winds prevail with seas
remaining around 2-4 ft through the rest of the night.

Monday through Thursday: With high pressure prevailing aloft,
generally quiet marine conditions are expected through the period.
Seas are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft across the marine zones.
Winds will be out of the SE to SW, generally around 10 knots. Each
afternoon a sea breeze is expected to form, which could produce some
gusty winds along the coastline and in the Charleston Harbor. Some
gusts could approach 20 knots.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds and small swells will lead to a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at all beaches into early evening.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEB/DPB
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CEB/CPM/DPB
MARINE...CEB/CPM/DPB