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000
FXUS64 KCRP 251131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of rip currents today through Friday

- Wind Advisory conditions possible Friday

- Isolated thunderstorms may occur over the Victoria Crossroads
  Friday

Deterministic NWP models predict an upper level disturbance to
move across the southwestern CONUS today, then lift over the
Plains tonight/Friday. In response, onshore flow will increase
during the period. Frequent wind gusts may reach the Wind Advisory
threshold over portions of the Coastal Bend Friday. No fire
weather concerns owing to elevated relative humidity values. The
NAM/GFS predict above normal PWAT values over the CWA during the
period. The combination of the foregoing upper disturbance and
moisture may contribute to isolated convection Friday afternoon
over mainly the Victoria Crossroads region, with CIN as the
caveat. The combination of persistent onshore flow and the full
moon will result in a Moderate risk of rip currents today through
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions for portions of
  South Texas Saturday

- Very warm Saturday with highs near 100 degrees out west

- Low to medium rain/storm chances daily Sunday through Wednesday

A strong surface pressure gradient will develop over the area
Saturday into Saturday night leading to a medium to high chance of
Wind Advisory conditions. The threat will first begin over the
Victoria Crossroads during the afternoon and then transition
westward into the Coastal Plains and Brush Country during the early
evening hours. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax by Sunday
as the surface low over the Plains drifts northeastward and a
surface high over the southeastern CONUS begins to build westward
extending into the Gulf.

Low to medium rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to the
forecast on Sunday as the next mid to upper level disturbance tracks
over the area combining with plentiful available moisture (PWATs 1.7-
1.8"). A persistent onshore flow will continue to bring moisture
into the region throughout the week (PWATs peaking at almost 2.0" at
times). This, in conjunction with the arrival of several passing
disturbances aloft, will lead to additional low to medium rain and
convective chances daily through mid next week. The highest
precipitation chances will be across the eastern half of the CWA
through Tuesday, then drift westward mid week. No flooding concerns
are expected at this time.

In terms of temperatures, these will be very warm on Saturday as a
dryline nears the area from the west. Highs are forecast to approach
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over portions of the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains, with maximums in the mid 80s across
the east. Otherwise, expect highs to range from the low 80s to mid
90s through the end of the Extended period, with overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Expect a mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning
through early afternoon, followed by predominate VFR during the
mid/late afternoon through the evening. A transition to
predominate MVFR ceilings is expected overnight. Breezy/windy
onshore flow from late this morning through early tonight,
followed by weak to moderate flow for the remainder of the period.
Non-convective LLWS anticipated for the ALI, CRP, and VCT
terminals 10-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As an upper level disturbance moves across the southwestern
CONUS/Plains during the period, moderate to strong onshore flow
will develop over the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the southern bays/nearshore waters this afternoon, and over
the coastal waters tonight/Friday. A persistent strong onshore
can be expected through Monday, with periods of Small Craft
Advisory or Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds become
weak to moderate during the day Monday and will persist through
the remainder of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a couple weak
disturbances move over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  73  86  75 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          85  71  85  73 /  10   0  20   0
Laredo            95  73  95  74 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             90  72  91  73 /   0   0  10   0
Rockport          82  73  82  75 /   0   0  10   0
Cotulla           94  74  94  74 /   0  10  10   0
Kingsville        88  73  90  74 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       83  74  83  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ231-232.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231-
     232-236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ250.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...WC/87