Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 111750
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough lifting off to our
east as a ridge begins to shift across the Western US. At the
surface, high pressure has settled into the region. Northerly winds
and clear skies will allow for temps to fall into the low to mid
50s for much of the area this morning. Upper level ridging and
surface high pressure will remain on control for the next couple
of days. Highs will settle into the mid to upper 80s today and
tomorrow with lows tonight dipping into the 50s again tonight.
Not expecting any fire weather weather concerns today despite the
dry air as winds will remain light. With that said, a secondary
surge of high pressure today may kick our winds up enough for a
brief period of elevated fire conditions around mid day. Onshore
flow returns on Friday. Winds across the Brush Country may be
breezy at times but moisture return will also be underway to help
negate potential fire weather concerns.
The main concern in the short term is the potential for coastal
flooding during our next high tide cycle around 8 AM this morning.
Swell periods offshore are currently around 7-9s. Gerling-Hanson
plots suggest this trend to continue through the day today. Current
thinking is that northwest winds today should help negate our risk.
However, if we see a shift to more northeasterly flow, we could see
Ekman transport begin to play a role. Confidence is low right now so
will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory but will have the day
shift monitor our tidal trends.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Key Messages:
- Drier pattern sets in for the next several days.
- Onshore flow returns late Friday. SCEC, SCA conditions possible by
early next week.
Dry conditions are expected in the long term as upper-level ridging
sets in. As the associated surface high pressure center propagates
eastward late Friday onshore flow will take hold, offering increased
moisture return coupled with a warming trend over the next week.
This is especially true for our westernmost counties, where highs
could reach the triple digits by Monday. Otherwise, highs will range
from the mid 70s to the mid 90s with lows in the 60s and 70s.
Early next week, another mid-to-upper level trough moves in across
the Central/Southern Plains. Model PWAT values are shown to be
around 1.5 inches, and weak shortwave impulses could provide uplift
support for some precipitation development across our
western/northwestern counties. Forecast soundings and model guidance
also indicate decent capping which could inhibit rain chances. There
may be some isolated instances of rain (less than 10% chance), but
otherwise South Texas will likely remain on the dry side during this
time. Overall, with this being several days away, there is still
some uncertainty regarding precipitation chances, so we will
continue to monitor conditions over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period. Generally weak
to moderate north flow over the Coastal Plains, and somewhat
variable over the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country, this afternoon.
Anticipate a transition to generally weak onshore flow this
evening/early tonight. Expect weak to moderate onshore flow
during the 15-18z Friday period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM for the
Gulf waters as winds and seas remain elevated. Conditions will
improve through the morning with winds becoming weak through the
day. Onshore flow will gradually return this evening and begin to
strengthen on Friday. Moderate onshore flow can be expected
Friday night before increasing to more moderate-to-strong levels
over by late weekend, leading to Small Craft Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory conditions into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 86 59 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 82 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 87 58 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 86 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 82 67 79 69 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 86 56 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 87 56 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 83 66 78 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...WC/87