802
FXUS64 KCRP 270024
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
724 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to high probability of Wind Advisory conditions across
Victoria Crossroads Saturday

-High risk of rip currents through Saturday evening

The previous forecast is expected to remain on track through
tomorrow night. A mid to upper level disturbance will be moving
across the Central Plains tonight into Saturday. Some of associated
shortwaves will continue to move through the area during this time
as well. There will be moderate instability in the region though
PWAT values will remain around normal levels until around 12Z
Sunday. The other caveat is the higher CIN values until the late
evening hours of Saturday. This will likely limit any convection
during the day, though showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over night by Sunday morning. SPC did include the
northwestern portions of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe
weather which will likely happen towards the end of the period like
previously mentioned.

An associated surface low is expected to develop tomorrow which will
enhance the tightening of the pressure gradient over the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads during the day which will likely lead
to Wind Advisory conditions across those areas with the higher
confidence being in the Victoria Crossroads (~70-85%). During the
early evening hours, the tight pressure gradient will shift out west
potentially leading to similar conditions over the Brush Country.
These conditions will also contribute to Small Craft Advisory
conditions over the Gulf Waters through Sunday. Seas will remain
elevated even though the winds are expected to drop off by Sunday.

Conditions will remain humid tonight with lows in the 70s expected.
High temperatures to the east will be in the mid 80s with upper 90s
out west due to less cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday across the
northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, then a low to medium
chance through the remainder of next week.

- Low to medium chance of minor coastal flooding and a moderate to
high rip current risk through middle of next week.

An upper level trough will be moving eastward across the region
Sunday and will combine with sufficient moisture, moderate low level
convergence, increasing upper level diffluence and instability to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across S TX.
Chances are low to medium (20-50%) with the better chances expected
across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads.
Highest chances will be across the Hill Country to the Houston area.
Farther south, the capping inversion will likely inhibit
development, thus the lower (10-20%) chances.

Severe weather is not anticipated for Sunday due to unfavorable
conditions (mainly the cap), but can not be ruled out across the
northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads due to proximity
to more favorable dynamics.

A series of short waves will keep rain chances in the forecast
through next week, but a capping inversion will keep the chances low
to medium (20-30%).

Breezy to windy south to southeast winds Sunday morning are progged
to decrease through the day with generally weak to moderate onshore
winds the remainder of the week. Lows in the 70s and highs in the
80s east to 90s west will persist through the extended period.

Due to strong southeasterly winds across the gulf waters this
weekend combined with large seas and long period swells around 9
seconds, minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches may occur
during times of high tide. This is possible through mid week, then
the swells are forecast to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Expect similar conditions to last night with MVFR CIGS developing
early in the night east and late in the night for western
terminals. Winds remain elevated, especially at CRP where gusts of
20 kt likely continue through the night. CIGS improve again by
mid-day Saturday. Winds should subside to more moderate levels for
western sites, but farther easts gusts above 30kt are likely
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning
in response to a persistent strong onshore flow across the marine
zones with occasional gusts up to 35 knots possible. Winds may
weaken slightly tonight, but will quickly ramp up by early
Saturday with seas remaining elevated. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the latter portions of Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Strong onshore flow Sunday morning is
expected to weaken through Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected by Monday and will
persist through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible daily Sunday through the upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  87  75  87 /   0   0   0  30
Victoria          73  85  73  85 /  10  10   0  50
Laredo            75  98  75  92 /   0   0  10  20
Alice             73  91  73  90 /   0   0   0  30
Rockport          74  83  74  84 /   0   0   0  40
Cotulla           76  97  75  92 /   0  10  20  30
Kingsville        74  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  30
Navy Corpus       75  87  75  84 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PH/83