439
FXUS61 KCTP 130003
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
803 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will brush northern PA on Monday before a cold
front pushes through on Tuesday. A wave of low pressure
tracking south of the Commonwealth will continue showery
conditions on Wednesday with drier conditions expected
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHRA and clouds are dwindling as we lose the heating of the day,
which is right on track with the going fcst. Surface ridging
building into the region will help to diminish the cloud cover
even more over the next few hours. But...the eastern half of the
area will have recently-wetted ground. The winds should go light
and promote fog development. Some drier air/lower sfc dewpoints
in the west should keep the fog more patchy there vs more-
widespread in the east. Ensemble prob charts continue to
indicate that the eastern part of the state is likely to see
the reprisal of low clouds and/or fog shortly after the rain and
clouds diminish. Given the low certainty/confidence of either
fog or low cloud development (could be either - or both), we
won`t be posting a fog advy just yet. However, be prepared for
foggy conditions for the morning rush, especially in the eastern
valleys. The western half of the CWA *may* be able to glimpse
the waning aurora tonight, but given latest space weather
forecasts that window appears to be closing quickly with the
best Aurora conditions expected to stay a little farther north
tonight than the past nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging building over PA should result in a warmer
and drier Monday overall. However, a weak area of low pressure
and its attendant warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks
could produce a few morning showers or afternoon tsra across
the northern half of PA. Partly sunny skies and a developing
southwest flow should push readings into the low to mid 70s.

A wave of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley
Tuesday before crossing the area Tuesday night, accompanied by a
renewed chance of rain and perhaps some thunder.

Low pressure slides off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday
with decreasing showers expected by Wed aftn and evening. We may
see our best drying period in over a week arrive Wednesday
night and potentially last into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering unsettled weather is possible into Wednesday, as
upper-level low pressure passes overhead.

Medium range models diverge a bit late this week. The ECMWF
continues to show unsettled weather persisting into Thursday,
as the upper- level low pressure very slowly pulls to our east.
The GFS/GEFS is a bit more optimistic, showing an upper- level
ridge bringing a period of dry weather from Wednesday night
through early Friday.

Both medium range models are in agreement in bringing our next
weather maker into the area later Friday into Saturday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms. The result would be
another Saturday with rain, easterly winds, and below average
temperatures - a beloved tradition over the last couple months
in Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies will clear out tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the airspace. Light winds with clear skies and wet surface
conditions will create ideal conditions for fog in the
Susquehanna Valley on Monday morning. Fairly strong signal for
IFR conditions at MDT, LNS, and IPT with an outside chance at
UNV toward daybreak.

After fog lifts/mixes out, VFR conditions prevail for everyone
on Monday. A few light showers will impact northern airfields
Monday (BFD, UNV, and IPT), but no restrictions are expected at
this time.

Outlook...
Tue...Showers/tstms and reductions developing.

Wed...Showery weather and reductions continue.

Thu...Slow improvement, with a few lingering showers possible.

Fri...Deteriorating conditions with showers increasing.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Evanego
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner