814
FNUS73 KDMX 301450
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Sievers...RES - p/ Iowa NRCS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
950 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Warmer and breezy today as south winds push afternoon temps into
the upper 70s. Peak wind gusts occur this afternoon with gusts of
up to 30 mph possible at times. Min RH dips down into the 40
percent range during peak heating.

Low confidence chance in showers and thunderstorms within 2 hours
of ignition time. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this
evening, followed by a switch to westerly winds tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (99400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................2.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  41  50  47  56  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  67  71  73  73  74
RH..............65  58  53  49  51  49
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..14  15  16  17  18  20
20 FT wind gust.20  22  23  24  28  30
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 3.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  20  21  22  24  26
GFDI............1   1   1   1   2   2
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100036  53  77  85  99  86

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (10-20 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 20 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 14 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 23 mph shifting to the west 12 to
                    18 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     95     82     28     6      4
Weather cov.....S CHC  DEFNTE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  DEFNTE S CHC
Temp............72     67     61     57     53     49
RH..............53     68     84     86     93     93
20 ft wind......S 20   S 17   SW 16  W 15   W 14   W 10
20 ft wind gust.29     26     24     23     20     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   800    600    800    700    500
Transport wind..S 23   S 23   SW 21  W 18   W 16   W 13
GFDI............2      1      1      0      0      0
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100037     16     11     13     9      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 20 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then shifting to the north 7 to 10
                    mph late in the afternoon shifting to the
                    northeast around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         21        46        54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............47        54        64        69
RH..............93        71        45        36
20 FT wind......W 9G14    W 10G16   NW 12G17  NE 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1400      3200      3600
Transport wind..W 10      W 18      NW 17     N 8
GFDI............0         0         1         1
Haines index....4         5         5         5
SDspl kt-ft/10004         23        48        26

$$
Forecaster...Jimenez
Requested by...Danny Simcox
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412793.0/DMX
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dsimcox@res.us