000
ACUS02 KWNS 250602
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts
of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great
Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very
large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper
Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific
front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the
central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A
warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across
MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level
trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern
Rockies.

...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO...
Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from
eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with
southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time.

In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of
moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE
into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and
approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering
low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting
supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail
threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the
magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible,
both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived
supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA.

Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector
is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While
large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least
isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by
late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would
pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or
will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can
materialize.

...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO...
Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern
OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning,
accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat.
Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the
eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern
extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized
convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards.

Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear
will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline
from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing
shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will
likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a
threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado.

...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX...
As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop
prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in
advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and
shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing
and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this
time for probabilities.

..Dean.. 04/25/2024

$$