Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehunatepec region is expected by Thu morning as a ridge
builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in
Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 30-35 kt, with seas
building to 12-13 ft by Thu night. Seas generated from this gap
wind event will spread away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas
8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 100W on Fri. Marine
interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu
morning through Fri morning should be aware of this upcoming gap
wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous
marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast
to diminish below gale force by Fri afternoon, and will be 20 kt
or less by Fri night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from a 1008 mb low pressure
located over northern Colombia near 09N95W to 06N95W to 05N110W
to another 1009 mb low pressure situated near 03N123W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N123W to beyond 01N140W. Clusters of moderate to
isolated strong convection are noted from 05N to 08N between
110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection can be found elsewhere
from 00N to 06N between 90W and 110W, from 04N to 07N between
120W and 130W, and from 02N to 04N W of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high
pressure located near 31N140W across the Revillagigedo Islands
to south of Michoacan State, Mexico. It is supporting gentle to
moderate NW to N winds along with seas at 8 to 9 ft in large NW
swell west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Fresh southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the
northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and
seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident for the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to
strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen near Cabo
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions are expected in the Tehuantepec
region Thu morning through Fri morning with seas building to
12-13 ft. A ridge W of the Baja California will support mostly
gentle to moderate northerly winds west of Baja California, and
near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Seas in this area are
going to gradually subside from north to south, dropping below 8
ft by Wed. In the Gulf of California, fresh southerly winds at
the northern gulf will become gentle to moderate by noon today,
and fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected at the southern
gulf on Wed evening. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas will linger near Cabo Corrientes until Wed
evening. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte Fri night, bringing with it
large NW swell and building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered
showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of
central America, Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, periodic showers and thunderstorms will
persist near the Galapagos Islands through Wed. Gusty winds and
rough seas are possible near strong thunderstorms. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, gap
winds in the Papagayo area and Gulf of Panama will steadily
increase as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri,
seas generated in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the
SW offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, building seas
there to 8 to 9 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high
pressure near 31N140W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the
equatorial trough/ITCZ supports an area of fresh to locally
strong trades from 09N to 20N west of 130W. Based on earlier
altimeter data, seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft in mixed NE and
NW swells.

For the forecast, the high pressure will weaken over the next 48
hours as a cold front approaches from the west. As a result,
winds will diminish over the west-central waters and across the
waters W of Baja California. Additional pulses of long period NW
swell will continue to impact the N waters over the next 48
hours, building seas to 8 to 9 ft. A cold front is forecast to
reach 30N140W early on Wed afternoon, and move across the NW
waters through Thu while weakening. Another cold front will reach
the far NW corner of the forecast area on Fri followed by another
swell event.

$$
GR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.