407
FNUS74 KEPZ 302102
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
302 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change tomorrow from Tuesday`s weather with the exception of
somewhat stronger winds. The region continues under a deep and dry
westerly flow pattern, that will keep the region warm, very dry, with
light AM winds and breezy and gusty PM winds. Temperatures will run
warmer than normal. RH will fall into the low teens and single-digits,
with quite poor rates. Fire weather conditions will be elevated, but
fall short of critical. Vent rate categories are expected to range from
very good to excellent.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....72-75.
Min humidity........9-13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (135600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (167700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      5      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     64     70     73     70
RH..............28     16     13     10     13
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 8   SW 13  SW 15  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.20     20     25     28     28
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   7100   7100   7800   7800
Transport wind..W 16   SW 21  SW 21  SW 24  SW 24
Haines index....2      4      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..51     136    136    168    168
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-44.
Max humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 14 mph with gusts to around 28
                    mph in the evening and overnight becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (140300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      7      4      4      6
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     57     51     47     43     40
RH..............13     22     28     32     39     44
20 ft wind......W 14   W 14   W 9    W 5    W 5    W 4
20 ft wind gust.28     28     21     10     10     9
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   7000   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 20   W 20   W 14   W 14   W 12   W 12
Haines index....4      3      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..140    140    6      6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....70-73.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......10400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (106300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (139500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         2         5         12
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        52        65        70
RH..............46        32        16        12
20 FT wind......W 3G7     NW 6G13   W 9G18    W 12G22
Mix hgt (ft)....4000      4000      9100      10400
Transport wind..NW 9      NW 9      W 12      W 15
Haines index....2         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36        36        106       140
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest winds
around 7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs around 70. Southwest winds
around 12 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412708.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov