957
FXUS64 KEWX 020823 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The complex of strong to severe thunderstorms that affected the
northern Hill Country last night into the overnight hours is rapidly
moving away into the HGX and FWD CWAs. Also the potential of heavy
rains is coming to an end as well. However, we will continue with
the Flood Watch for a few more hours to allow flooded waters to
recede.

For the rest of today`s forecast:

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast for South Central Texas throughout the day. The Rio Grande
and southern Edwards Plateau areas have better probabilities to stay
dry for the morning hours while locations along and east of Highway
281 have better chances to experience shower and thunderstorm
activity as an upper level short wave over central Texas pushes to
northeast.

There is plenty instability in place across the local area and this
helps for a quick shower or thunderstorm to develop with the heating
of the day. Any shower or thunderstorm that manages to develop has
the potential to become strong to marginally severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the main threats. Also, precipitable water
values are around 1.2 to 1.7 inches, which means that any strong
updraft could produce a heavy downpour in a short period of time.

Cloudy skies are expected to prevail for most of the day with the
exception of the Rio Grande, where partly cloudy skies are forecast
for the mid to late afternoon. Today`s highs are forecast to range
from the mid 80s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal
Plains to low and mid 90s along the Rio Grande.

Later tonight, things are expected to stay relatively quiet for the
most part with some isolated showers or a few thunderstorms along
and east of Highway 77.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the local area as the dry-line sits across west Texas and a
weak frontal boundary slowly pushes into central Texas. Friday`s
highs range from the mid 80s along and east of Interstate 10 and
Interstate 35 to upper 80s through mid 90s across the southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

HREF members seem to suggest a stormy afternoon Friday to carry over
into the evening for Friday night. The GFS is also a bit more bullish
on convection for Friday night. For this reason have pushed some
areas of the CWA into a chance category for storms, as the WPC QPF
for 00-06Z suggests a robust round of storms rolling off the higher
terrain into the Rio Grande Plains. Repeated rounds of isolated to
scattered convection will keep the stormy narrative lively, but as
has been experienced for much of the spring the better potential has
favored the Hill Country and Central Texas. while there has been
little predictability with the most recent activity, and likely to
remain the case in the short-term, there is perhaps a period from
noon to midnight Saturday, where more organized storm clusters can
generate a cool outflow boundary and potentially spread farther
south for a better coverage across the area. Aside from that the San
Antonio area and areas south of I-10 and east of I-37 look to end up on
the short end again in the need for drought-relieving rains.

Rain chances de-escalate Sunday, and by late Sunday night the
forecast pivots toward a more hot and dry scenario for the work week.
while a weak SW flow pattern aloft will remain over TX, stronger
dynamics over the Central Plains will likely keep a strong inversion
over much of TX with some hot/dry plateau air spilling NE from
Mexico. Thus a dry-line is expected to invade into South Central TX
while the moist sector to the east is expected to be too shallow to
give us a shot at convection.

Monday should be a transition day to the hot weather but some areas
may remain fairly mild and humid from the recent rains. Then the heat
ramps up Tuesday and continues through at least Wednesday. Some
triple digit heat is projected for the Rio Grande Plains by Tuesday,
and the central and eastern counties could get into the mid-upper 90s
by Wednesday. Any lingering humidity could combine with this heat for
a low-end Heat Advisory potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across the
Hill Country while pushing to the northeast. Some activity at the
tail end of this feature could clip KAUS within the next hour or two.
Therefore, included a TEMPO group with -TSRA for KAUS. In addition,
low cigs at IFR category are forecast overnight into the middle of
the morning for KAUS. Similar situation apply for KSAT and KSSF where
IFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight through at least 18Z
Thursday. MVFR cigs return sometime in the mid to late afternoon.
KDRT sits at MVFR but around dawn lowering to IFR. MVFR cigs return
late morning with cigs lifting to VFR by 17Z. Southeasterly flow 5 to
10 knots are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  71  84  71 /  50  20  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  70  84  70 /  60  20  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  71  87  71 /  40  10  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            82  69  84  70 /  30  20  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  96  74 /  10   0  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  69  83  70 /  50  20  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             85  70  89  70 /  10  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  70  84  70 /  50  20  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  72  83  72 /  60  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  72  86  71 /  20  10  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           86  73  87  72 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bastrop-Blanco-Burnet-
Caldwell-Fayette-Hays-Lee-Llano-Travis-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...18
Aviation...17