875
FXUS63 KFGF 300548
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region
  Tuesday afternoon and again later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Can still note some drizzle across the east side of the RRV with
visibility as low as 2 miles but otherwise no impacts as air
temps remain in the upper 30s. still only noting patchy fog but
will monitor for increased coverage as conditions should favor
expansion in the next few hours with calm winds and a developing
inversion.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Some patchy fog has developed in the Devils Lake Basin. The
spotty drizzle is still occurring in some areas. By 06z/midnight
these areas should start to dry up and will be monitoring fog
development through the night. Tomorrow around 18z1 pm we
should start to see the light rain showers return.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

As the upper low slowly departs our region we are still seeing
some spotty drizzle that may continue for the next hour. Tonight
is still looking to be fairly cloudy however there is a small
signal for some early morning patchy fog but not that confident
in timing and development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper low spinning over central MN continues to lift
northeastward this afternoon, and should be in Ontario by
tonight. This should allow some brief ridging to move in between
systems. Weak surface ridging over the CWA will slowly give way
so southeasterly winds at least on the ND side. Could see a bit
of patchy fog/mist development even if clouds linger given
recent visibility trends, although probabilities of less than a
half a mile are under 10 percent.

The quiet conditions will be short lived as another upper low
moves into the northern Rockies tomorrow and ejects a strong
lead shortwave into the eastern Plains. Southeasterly winds
ahead of the surface trough should bring at least some
marginally warmer temperatures tomorrow afternoon, and some of
the ensemble members bring some CAPE up to 500 J/kg into our
west central MN counties, but most are lower. There is the
threat of some lightning impacts but all the updraft helicity
tracks are well to our south and think our chances of seeing
any stronger convection are less than 10 percent. The rain will
lift northeastward into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with another quick break in precip rounds expected for mid-week.

Thursday into Friday, the upper trough over the Rockies starts
to kick out into the Plains and then lift off into Canada. There
is still quite a bit of variation in the exact track of how the
ensemble members handle the low. Probabilities of at least a
quarter of an inch of rain are 30 to 40 percent across most of
the CWA, so it seems like there will be a good chance for
another wetting rain. For the weekend and into Monday, there
continues to be a signal for a fairly active pattern, but timing
is all over the place. One cluster is showing a trough at the
same time as another cluster a ridge over the Plains. Thus, will
keep the 20-30 POPs and near average temps the mean gives us.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR as the showers are stopping
for the night. There are still scattered layers between 1000 and
3000ft. These lower layers have tended to form a broken ceiling
and then scatter out a few hours later. There is still some fog
development but it hasn`t persisted past a few hours. Closer to
sunrise the fog may develop and persist as some of the models
have shown but still not confident if the atmosphere will remain
stable enough ahead of the system approaching this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM