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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday & Wednesday/

Cool and dry conditions are expected through sunrise. Outside of
a few passing high clouds within northwest flow aloft, initially
plentiful sunshine will briefly greet everyone at sunrise. The
early morning sunshine will be short-lived as strong south-
southwesterly winds of 45-55 kts a few thousand feet above the
surface draw low level moisture quickly northeastward. A band of
low clouds currently moving into the Hill Country will surge north
with the aid of this LLJ and move into the area by mid morning.
Moisture below the stout elevated mixed layer (EML/Cap aloft)
based around 875mb is anticipated to be relatively shallow. This
should result in the scattering, then eastward shift of the
morning low clouds into eastern Central Texas and East Texas by
lunchtime. A strong mid level disturbance arriving from the
northwest late this afternoon is expected to support a cold front
southward into South Plains/western Big Country. This front will
extend northeast into Central and Southwest Oklahoma by this
evening, but likely stall just north of the Red River and
northwest of our eastern Big Country areas north of I-20 and west
west of I-35/35W. Discrete storm development is expected along the
front, particularly west of a Wichita Falls to Abilene and San
Angelo line. This will be an area with much hotter afternoon
temperatures and thus, a more elevated and much weaker EML/cap and
better threat for supercell thunderstorms and severe weather.

Increasingly strong and gusty southerly winds this afternoon will
continue drawing GoM moisture northward with a noticeable
increase in humidity. More abundant sunshine across western North
and Central Texas will help high temperatures warm readily into
the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile, more stagnant broken high
cloudiness will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. Gusty southerly winds 15 to 25 mph will remain below
Wind Advisory criteria, but still result in choppy open water on
area lakes.

Any severe storms by early evening out west should weaken as they
move southeast and encounter gradually increasing CINH
(inhibition). That said, an isolated severe weather threat for
large hail stones and very gusty winds will remain possible past
sunset this evening, especially considering the instability within
this area and high temperatures in the mid 80s. As we move
through the nighttime hours, increasing mid level heights across
most of the CWA will likely keep a stronger EML and help to limit
any severe weather threat further east across the Red River Valley
and northeast counties. Any low storm chances will be confined to
those counties north of Hwy 380 and I-30 overnight. Another
mitigating factor would be a strongly veered and weaker LLJ of
25-35 kts. More robust cells will still be capable of very gusty
winds and small hail, with an isolated threat for large hail not
completely ruled out with more robust storms solely due to the
aforementioned steep lapse rates aloft. Any storm anvil debris and
another stratus surge Wednesday morning will help low
temperatures Wednesday morning remain in the 60s with southerly
winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday will be very similar, if not slightly cooler out west
thanks to the more expansive morning low cloudiness and slower
dissipation due to moisture depth under the EML. The frontal
boundary and any earlier extent of outflow will waffle around in
or near the immediate Red River Valley into our northeast counties
primarily along and north of I-30. With some uncertainty of how
these boundaries play out, extensive morning cloudiness and
showers, assessing the severe threat becomes more problematic and
agree with the general thunder forecast currently in place from
SPC with any low coverage of severe storms remaining well to the
west and northwest of the forecast area. All these factors should
help in keeping highs capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
southerly winds 10 to 20 mph.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with current
trends remaining more than reasonable through the week and into
next weekend. Low-end potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will exist each day, with better chances starting on
Thursday and lasting through the weekend. While the overall
severe weather potential is low, there will still be the potential
for any of these storms to produce large hail and damaging winds.
Along with this, a gradual warming trend will result in afternoon
highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
60s and 70s. For more details, please see the previous discussion.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A strengthening mid level ridge over Texas and the Southern
Plains will maintain the warming trend across North and Central
Texas through the mid to late week period. Afternoon temperatures
will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday through
Friday, which will be near to slightly above normal for late
April. At the surface, a front will stall near or just north of
the Red River, providing low-end chances for thunderstorms across
the far north and northwest zones Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
The ridge will work against convective attempts, however, keeping
coverage of storms isolated and POPs in the slight chance range.

The ridge will begin to weaken on Thursday as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The shortwave will cross the southern
Rockies during the day Thursday, eventually reaching West-Central
Texas Thursday evening. Thunderstorms will develop west of the
region in advance of the shortwave, with convection being focused
along a dryline stretching across the Big Country and Concho
Valley. Showers and storms will spread east across North & Central
Texas Thursday night through Friday morning as the shortwave
lifts northeast through the Southern and Central Plains. A few
severe storms will be possible, but with storms occurring mainly
overnight through Friday morning, a lack of instability should
help reduce the overall severe threat.

A lull in convective weather will be possible Friday afternoon
through Friday night, but a second shortwave will kick off another
round of thunderstorms on Saturday. Storms will initially be
isolated and focused along the dryline Saturday afternoon, keeping
the severe weather threat confined to the Big Country counties.
Large scale ascent will arrive as the shortwave crosses the Texas
Panhandle Saturday night, generating more widespread showers and
storms. The Saturday night convection will become focused along a
Pacific front, which will overtake the dryline as it pushes east
through the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Some
strong to severe storms will again be possible, but yet again the
time of day should preclude a more widespread severe weather
threat. Precipitation will exit to the east Sunday night into
Monday, but a stalling front may lead to additional rain chances
around the start of next week and the beginning of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR with southerly winds around 10 kts with an occasional gust to
between 15-20 kts is expected for the D10 airports through
sunrise this morning. MVFR cigs were already noted on fogIR
satellite moving north from the Rio Grande Plains into the Hill
Country at this hour.

MVFR cigs will race NNE aided by a 45-55 kt LLJ and reach Waco in
the 13z-14z, then DFW soon after (14z-15z). With a strong
inversion at 875mb and moisture below fairly shallow and surface
temperatures rapidly warming into the 70s, I expect cigs to
briefly rise into low VFR before scattering and shifting eastward
around midday and thereafter.

Sustained surface winds are expected ramp up to between 15-20 kts
by 18z with gusts 25-30 kts before decoupling to around 10 kts
again within a few hours after sunset. CAMs do show another surge
of low MVFR cigs reaching the I-20 corridor before 12z Wednesday.
I have opted to wait until later this morning to reassess the
data and gain more confidence before introducing into the DFW TAF.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  81  68  81  69 /   5  10  10  10  30
Waco                63  80  68  80  70 /   0   0   5   5  10
Paris               61  77  63  79  67 /  20  30  20  20  20
Denton              62  80  67  80  69 /  10  10  20  10  30
McKinney            62  79  66  80  69 /  10  20  10  10  30
Dallas              64  80  68  81  70 /   0  10  10  10  20
Terrell             62  79  65  80  69 /   0  10  10   5  20
Corsicana           64  81  67  82  70 /   0   0   5   5  10
Temple              63  80  66  82  69 /   0   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       62  81  66  82  68 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$