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000
FXUS64 KFWD 132330
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tomorrow Night/

A beautiful weekend is underway across North and Central Texas
with temperatures currently riding in the upper 70s and low to mid
80s. Warm and breezy conditions will continue through tomorrow
thanks to a ridge aloft that is currently centered over Mexico.
Southerly flow will continue across the region ahead of our next
storm system that is pushing across California this evening. This
will result in mild overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s
and increased cloud cover as we close out the weekend. A stratus
intrusion will develop late tonight through early tomorrow morning
along the Texas coast, gradually working its way northward into
our region. These clouds will scatter out through Sunday morning
as the boundary layer awakens and turbulent mixing resumes.

Highs on Sunday will reach into the low to mid 80s with a few
locations out west approaching the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows
will fall into the low to mid 60s with increasing cloud cover
across the region late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/
/Monday and Beyond/

By early Monday morning, a deep upper low will be shifting over
the Four Corners region leading to surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies. Increasing southerly flow will transport mid-60s
dewpoints over North and Central Texas by Monday afternoon ahead
of a dryline laid out across portions of West/Northwest Texas.
Initial thunderstorm development will take place late Monday
afternoon and evening along this boundary well to the west and
northwest of the FWD CWA as the upper low approaches. The
environment will support discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures with this initial convection as it develops across
portions of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. As a Pacific
front overtakes the dryline late Monday evening and pushes the
convection toward our western zones, a transition to a more linear
storm structure make take place. With the greater synoptic-scale
ascent remaining northwest of our forecast area ahead of the upper
low track and SBCIN increasing after dark, moderate to strong
capping may lead to a downtrend in intensity by the time the
thunderstorm activity enters our Big Country and western North
Texas counties around 8-11PM Monday night. This is especially true
as the line/broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaches
the I-35 corridor later Monday night.

With sufficient wind shear and at least some moderate elevated
instability, we do not want to underplay the severe weather threat
just yet, especially west of the I-35 corridor late Monday evening
into Monday night. At least scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected along the Pacific front as it pushes
through North and Central Texas, but it is likely that many
locations receive less than 0.10" of rain with this event. Most of
the activity should push into East Texas by midday Tuesday, but we
will need to monitor for a brief window of reintensification early
Tuesday afternoon across our far eastern/southeastern counties.

Drier air behind the Pacific front will lead to a dry, warm
midweek period with afternoon highs approaching the mid-80s to low
90s by Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through the region
in the Thursday-early Friday timeframe bringing cooler
temperatures and thunderstorm chances back to the region. High
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are looking more probable
Friday into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings Through Early Tomorrow Morning.

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening
hours across all TAF sites, but MVFR ceilings will gradually push
northward as a stratus intrusion develops along the Texas coast.
Moisture associated with a 35 knot low level jet will increase low
level cloud cover across Waco starting around 07-08z, reaching
the D10 terminals by around 11-12z. These ceilings should remain
between 1500 to 2500 feet, though there is a low chance (~30%)
that ceilings deteriorate down to IFR across portions of North and
Central Texas. Ceilings should gradually improve as we move into
the late morning hours as cloud cover begins to scatter out.
Otherwise, winds will remain southerly through tomorrow afternoon,
occasionally gusting up to around 25-30 knots.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  84  66  81  68 /   0   0   0   5  50
Waco                64  82  66  80  68 /   0   0   0   0  30
Paris               59  80  64  79  66 /   0   0   0   5  40
Denton              60  84  64  81  66 /   0   0   0  10  60
McKinney            62  82  65  80  67 /   0   0   0   5  50
Dallas              64  84  66  81  69 /   0   0   0   5  50
Terrell             61  81  64  80  67 /   0   0   0   0  40
Corsicana           63  82  66  82  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Temple              62  82  64  81  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Mineral Wells       61  87  65  82  64 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$