Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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114 FXUS65 KGJT 120533 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1133 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening before activity begins to favor the central areas tonight. Soaking rains are expected at lower elevations with a few inches of accumulating snow above 9500 feet. Small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph are possible with storms. - Daily showers and thunderstorms, favoring the mountains along the Divide, are expected Sunday and continuing through the coming week. More widespread activity returns Tuesday into Wednesday. - A gradual warming trend will bring near normal temperatures tomorrow, and above normal temperatures from Monday onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 The circulation denoting the closed low currently lifting across our forecast area today is evident on both radar and satellite this afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing. Activity was originally centered over the Four Corners region this morning before the low began to shift, which led to areas of sunshine to start the day farther north. Storms have finally started to fill in across the northern and central zones in response which some pretty strong cells over the higher terrain. Storms have already been capable of producing up to a couple inches of accumulation of small hail in addition to frequent lightning and locally higher rates. Active weather will prevail going into the evening hours before the low and associated vort max shifts east of the Divide tonight. Its center will settle near Pueblo, putting our central zones across western Colorado in a favorable position to receive additional wraparound moisture. High-res guidance continues to ping on a notable band of showers in this region tonight which will bring another round of snow to the mountains...generally on the magnitude of 2 to 4 inches with some locally higher amounts on favored slope. North- east Utah and northwest Colorado on the other hand will be under the influence of subsident, dry air tonight in the wake of the closed low. By Sunday morning skies across the northern tier of the forecast area will be mostly clear with the aforementioned band of showers farther south begins to slowly dissipate by mid morning. The low will continue its progression east throughout the day with northerly flow setting up aloft behind it. Plenty of residual moisture and this unsettled flow will lead to another round of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms along the Continental Divide on Sunday. Elsewhere will see mostly dry weather with temperatures beginning to rebound. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Weak ridging tries to build in at the start of the long term period but a shortwave will undercut the ridge and allow some convection to fire in the afternoon. As of now, the NBM is including all mountain ranges in Colorado and the eastern Uintas though probabilities are in the 30 to 40% range. QPF amounts range from .01 to .1 inch range so not much precip to speak of. A few showers may persist overnight but we`re not done just yet. The next trough will be approaching from the northwest and despite upper level support being rather weak, enough support and instability will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. As this occurs, an upper level low will be spinning just off the SoCal coast. Models continue to highlight the upper level trough getting in phase with this low. This looks to occur by early Wednesday afternoon. The upper level trough axis doesn`t move through our area until Thursday morning so we`ll see unsettled weather continue through that timeframe. The rest of Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies for the region though some showers/storms remain possible over the San Juans. Some discrepancies pop up between models for the weekend but the gist of it being mostly dry looks to be the common theme. As far as temps are concerned, highs will start out near normal if not a few degrees above. The increase in clouds and precip will cause temps to drop to near normal, or slightly below, midweek with a warmup starting on Friday onwards. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 An area of light to moderate rainfall is moving southeast through the region at this hour. Reduced visibility and low ceilings associated with this area have led to MVFR to IFR conditions at KASE, with KEGE and KRIL remaining below ILS breakpoints. This area will bring potential showers to KGJT, KMTJ, KTEX, and KGUC over the next 6 hours before tapering off. Skies will clear behind this area of showers, with ceilings rising above ILS breakpoints. VFR conditions will prevail after 12z. Gusty afternoon winds up to 20 knots will be possible. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT