461
FNUS73 KGRR 070925
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Range 15 Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
525 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Rain is likely to hold off until at least Noon. Winds will be from
the southeast this morning with mixing gradually improving. The
chance of rain or a thunderstorm increases between Noon and 2 PM.
After a brief break, additional thunderstorms are likely after
4 or 5 PM.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers or a thunderstorm after Noon, then rain
                    showers with thunderstorms likely after 2 PM.
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 15
                    mph shifting to the south 12 to 14 mph late in
                    the day. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 14 to 23 mph shifting to the south
                    around 15 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....80 /poor/ at ignition. Max...600 /excellent/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........68     66     78     94     88     78
Weather cov.....              S CHC  DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Temp............56     60     67     66     68     69
RH..............56     55     54     73     76     78
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 13  SE 15  SE 15  SE 15  S 14
20 ft wind gust.20     22     24     25     24     22
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1300   2400   1700   2100   1200
Mixing wind.....SE 14  SE 20  SE 23  SE 21  S 22   S 18
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Smoke disprsl...80     260    550    350    470    230

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....160 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    50 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 9 mph late in the day.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 21 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 12 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....60 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    1190 (excellent) in the afternoon increasing to
                    180 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    1220 (excellent) in the afternoon in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413328.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com