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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201210
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A rather busy period is expected for SE TX today and tonight with the
approach/passage of a strong short wave from the west. The warm/humid
airmass already in place over the region will see an additional boost
of moisture from the Gulf this afternoon (as PWs increase to 1.7"-2")
with the development of a strong LLJ. Further aloft, models are cont-
inuing to indicate a broad diffluent jet structure along with a grad-
ually increasing shear pattern at the mid levels.

Although the primary weather concerns are for this evening on through
tonight with the arrival/passage of the associated cold front...there
is still a chance of isolated to scattered activity this morning into
this afternoon via embedded disturbances in the flow aloft. The high-
est POPs should be north and west of the US-59/I-69 corridor. As day-
time heating begins to peak, all the aforementioned factors will also
be coming together as well. This does point to increasing coverage as
well as the intensity of the developing showers/thunderstorms as this
next cold front begins to make its E/SE push through the CWA. Strong/
severe storms cannot be ruled out for this afternoon/evening. SPC has
a large part of SE TX in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe wx
starting later this afternoon. Strong winds and hail will be the main
threats.

As this widespread convection moves through the area, periods of mod-
erate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Models continue to indicate
that the best locations for training activity/higher rain totals will
be generally north of the I-10 corridor through tonight. WPC is main-
taining a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall over
the northern half of the CWA...and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
the rest of the area.

Rain chances will be ending (from west to east) by Sun morning as the
storm system pushes east of the area and helps to drag its associated
cold front front through. Cooler/drier air will be filtering into the
CWA through the day as N/NE winds develop. Clouds could take a little
more time to clear...but should clear out by tomorrow evening. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mild and generally pleasant conditions will continue on Monday, with
morning temperatures sitting in the 40s/low 50s as surface high
pressure is centered just to our north. Afternoon highs will rise
into the lower 70s, but with dew points sitting in the 50 degree
range during the afternoon conditions should prove to be much more
pleasant than that of the preceding week. The aforementioned surface
high will begin to drift to the east by Tuesday, leading to the
reestablishment of an onshore flow regime and thus a gradual increase
in both temperatures and humidity through the end of the week. Highs
will reach the 80s once again by mid-week, while dew points will
break the 60 mark by Wednesday and approach 70 by Thursday. As this
pattern prevails, WAA and increasing low-level cloud cover will see
low temperatures again reaching the upper 60s for many areas by
Thursday.

As a midlevel trough swings into the Central Rockies on Thursday and
the associated lee cyclone at the surface deepens to around 990mb,
the resultant tight synoptic pressure gradient will produce gusty
conditions across SE TX to close out the week. Inland wind speeds on
Friday will reach around 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph
possible at times. A weak surface boundary associated with this
feature will approach on Friday, but should stall to our north. This
could still produce some shower/storm activity across the far
northern zones, but as a whole rainfall chances will otherwise be
contained to isolated diurnally driven activity through the end of
the week.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The forecast will be a messy one as rain chances increase and CIGS
fall in response to an approaching storm system and its associated
cold front. Areas of patchy dense fog (mainly CXO) should mix out/
dissipate by mid morning or so. Elsewhere, conditions are going to
remain a mix of MVFR and VFR through this afternoon, with isolated
showers/light rain/drizzle prevailing. Shower/thunderstorm develop-
ment (with the mention of VCTS) should begin a bit after noon near
the northern terminals...moving SE through the rest of the day. As
the evening approaches, coverage will be more focused on the front
as it moves into and across the CWA. Some showers and storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall with decreased VIS. These lower CIG
levels should stay in place through the end of the forecast period.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Steady onshore flow continues through Saturday, remaining under
caution thresholds. Patchy fog remains a possibility through this
morning as a result. A cold front will move offshore early on
Sunday, bringing with it the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Behind the departing boundary, moderate to strong
north winds will develop. This will likely require a Small Craft
Advisory. Winds will diminish on Monday as an area of high pressure
moves over to the area, and onshore flow resumes on Tuesday as the
high drifts eastward. Steady onshore flow is expected throughout
remainder of the week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  53  65  47 /  90  90  20   0
Houston (IAH)  82  56  67  52 /  70  70  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  61  70  59 /  40  60  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady