Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 260739
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1239 AM PDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend is expected today and Wednesday.

2. A weak storm system will be responsible for periods of
mainly light precipitation north of Kern County Wednesday
evening through Thursday.

3. There is a 53 to 67 percent chance of one foot of snow or
more in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

4. There is a 64 to 71 percent chance of one inch of rain or
more in the Sierra Nevada foothills north of Tulare County
Friday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure will make landfall
over the west coast of the United States today. This ridge of
high pressure will progress eastward across the Western United
States tonight through Tuesday night. A warming trend is
anticipated today and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, high
temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal for this
time of year. A trough of low pressure will move southward
through Northern California Wednesday. This trough of low
pressure should pass across Central California Wednesday night
into Thursday, resulting in mainly light precipitation north of
Kern County. Six to eight inches of snow is expected in places
such as Badger Pass Ski Area, Tioga Pass, and Tuolumne Meadows.
A Winter Weather Advisory will be required for the Mariposa and
Madera County portions of the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet
Wednesday evening through Thursday.

An upper-level area of low pressure will approach the coast of
California Thursday night and Friday morning. Precipitation
associated with this cyclone aloft should overspread Central
California Friday afternoon. Periods of precipitation are
expected Friday night through Saturday night as this upper-level
area of low pressure remains just off the coast of California.
The cyclone aloft should pass eastward across the southern
portion of the Golden State Sunday. The majority of
precipitation this weekend should fall Friday night and
Saturday. Snow levels will start at around 5,000 feet Friday
afternoon, before falling to about 4,000 feet Sunday morning.
Here are probabilities of one foot of snow or more for select
locations in the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon through Sunday:

Mount Tom - 67%
Tuolumne Meadows - 61%
Mammoth Mountain - 60%
High Sierra - 58%
Devils Postpile - 56%
Tioga Pass - 53%

A Winter Storm Watch may be required for the Sierra Nevada above
5,000 feet Friday afternoon through Sunday. Here are
probabilities of one inch of rain or more for select locations
in the Sierra Nevada foothills Friday afternoon through Sunday:

El Portal - 77%
Bass Lake - 77%
North Fork - 74%
Mariposa - 73%
Oakhurst - 72%
Coarsegold - 64%
Auberry - 64%

This type of rainfall may cause rockslides in canyons and steep
hillsides Friday night through Sunday. Precipitation should
taper off Sunday night, before ending by Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mountain obscuring MVFR or lower conditions are expected in the
Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at
least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ338.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...BS
PIO/DSS........................BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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