Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
550 FXUS66 KHNX 120835 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 135 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend is expected through today, where high temperatures this afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. 2. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal values Monday through Friday. 3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Sunday afternoon, Monday afternoon, and Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... A ridge building over the area as the low pressure system that impacted the area tracks eastward will allow the warming trend to continue through tomorrow. In the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-90s for much of the area. As ridge building continues into the beginning of next week, temperatures will stay nearly 10 degrees above normal until Saturday of next week. Here are probabilities that temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could reach 93 degrees or higher this afternoon: Bakersfield: 51% Fresno: 61% Hanford: 56% Lemoore: 61% Merced: 41% Madera: 41% Reedley: 21% Porterville: 26% Visalia: 51% Alongside this warming, a couple shortwave troughs will move through the area, and will provide enough lift and instability to bring afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances to the Sierra Nevada. These thunderstorm chances will persist through this afternoon, tomorrow, and Tuesday before dropping off on Wednesday as the shortwave troughs begin moving eastward across the US. Convective available potential energy values are around 300 J/kg this afternoon, and more than double for tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon. Main threats with these thunderstorms include cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts of 45 mph or higher. Here are probabilities that certain Sierra Nevada locations will see thunderstorms this afternoon: Tioga Pass: 11% Yosemite Valley: 12% Tuolumne Meadows: 13% Wawona: 11% Lake Thomas Edison: 10% Oakhurst: 6% Shaver Lake/Grant Grove/Three Rivers: 5% && .AVIATION... Areas of localized MVFR due to thunderstorm activity possible from 21Z through 03Z this afternoon and evening in the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/11/2024 13:36 EXPIRES: 05/12/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...AS PIO/IDSS..........VJP weather.gov/hanford