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000
FXUS63 KICT 180616
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe risk this evening with continued convective
  chances into Thursday morning, mainly along/east of I-135.

- Windy and turning much cooler during Thursday with stretch of
  cooler (below climo) weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Main short term concern/challenge is convective chances/trends
this evening into Thursday morning. Low level moisture advection
on a return southerly flow through the evening across south
central Kansas and the Flint Hills looks to result in plume of
moderate instability as the developmental warm front noses
northward across the area. A blend of the NAM/RAP suggests
elevated cape values at or above 1500 j/kg in the presence of
moderate/strong cloud bearing shear. In the absence of stronger
forcing aloft, it may take a ramp-up of the nocturnal low level
jet to initiate convection along/north of the front by late
evening. So chances are somewhat conditional in the evening. If
storms develop, large hail will be the main concern with a
remote tornado risk if storms can become somewhat quasi-surface
based given impressive 0-1 km SRH. Better chances/coverage of
strong to severe convection should shift primarily into
northeast Kansas after midnight as a warmer EML advects across
much of the area. A strong cold front will plunge southward
across the area late tonight through Thursday morning, as a more
significant upper trof progresses eastward across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stronger forcing/lift from the front
should allow for an uptick in showers/storms east of the
turnpike corridor in the early morning with sufficient
shear/instability combo for at least a marginal severe risk.
Otherwise, much colder air on brisk north winds on Thursday with
a period of post-frontal light rain/drizzle followed by
clearing in the afternoon.

Much cooler for Friday with weak migratory disturbances aloft
moving thru the modest westerly flow aloft. This may promote
some sprinkles from a mid-level cloud deck, though a drier
sub-cloud airmass should preclude measurable precip.

A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend periodic disturbances continuing to ripple through the
mean west-northwest flow aloft. Any precip chances looks spotty
and generally light. Some moderation closer to or a tad above
climo by early next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong cold front will blast south through the region
overnight through Thursday morning, with strong north winds and
MVFR to possibly patchy IFR ceilings in its wake. Northerly wind
gusts will exceed 30-35 kts at times. Thinking better
shower/thunderstorm chances will mostly remain across northeast
Kansas, within a zone of strong 850-600mb warm advection,
although the southerly periphery of this activity could flirt
with portions of east-central and southeast Kansas late tonight
through Thursday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK