403
FXUS62 KILM 051606
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1206 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today through
Monday due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal
heating, and the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build
overhead by Wednesday with well above normal temperatures
Wednesday through Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Fri due to an approaching frontal system and upper low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor updates needed but overall forecast on track for
sct convection through this aftn with mix of sun and clouds.
Most feeding in along the coast of SC up through inland NC.
Appears to be focused along lingering boundary but this should
lift north through late this aftn. Steering flow shifts from
S-SW to a more SW-W direction later in the day, but most models
show convection fading away by early eve with weak ridging
building up the Southeast coast. Temps will max out around 80
most places.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deeper moisture will overspread the remaining portions of the
FA today into tonight, ie. across Southeast NC, as a couple
mid-level s/w trofs push across the FA and thru the low
amplitude upper ridge. POPs will peak later this morning thru
early this evening as diurnal heating and whats left of a weak
inland sfc boundary and even a weak sea breeze, all combine to
aid the necessary forcing. Shower and tstorm activity likely
will be slow movers, not as slow as Sat, with light to modest
rainfall deposits and 25 mph wind gusts the main convection
results. Also, more clouds than visible sun expected today given
the amount of convection anticipated and the resulting
convective debris clouds expected. Convection should fade in the
evening, except for the immediate coast and adjacent waters,
where we`ll hold onto a chance POP thru the night. Highs today
will be in the upper 70s with a few locations eclipsing 80
degrees. Tonights lows, balmy 60s to near 70 at the coast given
local SSTs having now reached the 70s given the extended period
of onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather continues during the early portion of next
week. Weak shortwave traversing the Carolinas will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Weak ridging
builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures
will produce better instability on Tuesday afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms likely to develop, primarily along
the sea breeze. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s and
overnight clearing with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging amplifies during the middle of the week. Expect above
normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping
coastal sites above normal as well. The warmest temperatures are
expected on Wednesday.

Friday will be a day worth monitoring for severe weather. The
ingredients aren`t yet showing enough continuity to sound the
alarm, but the mesoscale and synoptic pattern certainly grab
our attention. Days of above normal temperatures will
precondition an unstable environment and a low level dynamics
will increase ahead of a strong upper low and surface cold
front.

Cooler and drier behind a cold front next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with sporadic MVFR ceilings and isolated shra will
dominate this morning and further become more widespread as the
day progresses. Will indicate prevailing -shra but at only 6sm
prevailing vsby. Will introduce a prob30 for a TSRA threat,
during the mid to late morning thru mid to late afternoon across
the appropriate terminals. Have included vrb15g25 kt wind
threat within the prob30 tsra threat. Will continue the vcsh
threat after sunset and thru the evening for just the coastal
terminals, with a better chance for the coastal terminals seeing
pcpn during the pre-dawn Mon hrs. Inland terminals should see
cloud improvements to mid and upper levels. Winds generally SE-
SSE 4 to 6 kt early this morning, becoming/increasing to SSE-S 6
to 10 kt during daylight Sun and diminishing back to 5 kt or
less after sunset.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Mon into Tue. Otherwise,
looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the
mainstay late Tue thru Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Onshore SSE-S flow at 10 to occasionally 15 kt
will dominate this period as the sfc pg slightly tightens as
the sfc ridging pressure pattern modifies off the Carolina
Coasts. Seas generally around 3 ft thru the period and comprised
of a 3 to 5 second period windwave with an underlying 1 to 2 ft
ESE-SE wave at 7 to 9 sec periods. Scattered showers and
tstorms will be at their peak later this morning into the
afternoon as an upper level s/w trof moves across.

Monday through Thursday Night... SW flow between 10-15 knots
expected for much of the period. Afternoon sea breeze will
see gusts up to 25 knots each afternoon. Seas generally 2-3
feet and increasing to 3-5 feet during the middle of next week
due to prolonged fetch of SW flow and increasing southerly
swell. Winds and seas begin to increase on Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front to near SCA thresholds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...21
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21