044
FXUS61 KILN 080740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm
conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a
return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending
into Thursday morning. Cool high pressure will provide dry
weather to close the work week before a fast-moving system
moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southwest mid-level flow ahead of a persistent Western U.S.
trough will continue the warm and humid pattern today. A
shortwave will eject northeast into the middle Mississippi
Valley by the end of the period, bringing increasing clouds.
Isolated showers and storms may begin to develop toward the end
of the period near and south of the Ohio River along a
developing warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Some high-res guidance shows the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms along the warm front to start the period
this evening. While hodographs remain rather straight, bulk
shear near 50 knots will be more than enough to allow for deep
cores with a large hail and damaging wind risk.

Later this evening into the overnight period, the shortwave will
shift east. This will bring a wave of low pressure and a
trailing cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Recent
trends shift the bulk of the strong to severe convection
further south, probably even south of our CWA. At any rate,
there will likely be a large shield of showers and embedded
storms moving through our CWA overnight.

The cold front will clear our area to the east on Thursday with
cooler and dry air finally arriving late in the day. Highs to
the north will remain in the 60s but will still reach into the
70s south of Interstate 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will settle over the region through the
weekend, bringing cooler temperatures to the Ohio Valley. An
embedded weak mid level short wave will drop down through the area
on Friday and this could lead to a few afternoon showers. A stronger
mid level short wave will pivot across the area on Saturday,
bringing a better chance for showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley for Sunday
with mostly dry conditions expected. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the weekend with daytime highs mainly in the 60s.

We will transition to a more zonal flow pattern aloft through early
next week with daytime highs back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday.
Some embedded mid level energy will lead to some lower end chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main weather concern during this TAF period will be the
potential for fog and stratus during the pre-dawn hours this
morning. Guidance hints at this potential, and pattern
recognition supports it as well with rainfall occurring during
the overnight, followed by decreasing clouds and a decaying
frontal boundary in the region.

Most of the uncertainty here is with the degree of clearing
clouds due to an expansive high cloud deck persisting from
previous convection.

Strong solar heating should burn any fog off quickly after
sunrise with a low-impact day expected at the TAF sites.

Clouds will increase near the end of the TAF period as another
disturbance approaches from the west.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday
and again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...