635
FXUS61 KILN 292325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
725 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and some thunderstorms will occur tonight into Tuesday
ahead of a cold front that will cross the region. High pressure
will then build in for the middle of the week with the return of
much above normal temperatures. Another cold front will move
towards the area on Friday bringing the next chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Sheared short wave will lift across the area overnight. Weak
cold front will be lagging and will probably still be west of
I-75 by daybreak Tuesday.

Atmosphere is still destabilizing, although even near term
guidance is in disagreement with how much. HRRR runs have been
indicating an inversion around 600 mb that is limiting CAPE
while the RAP is much less pronounced with the inversion and
therefore more unstable. So will continue to monitor
observational trends. There is plenty of shear, so if sufficient
instability materializes, it is not out of the question that
there could be a few strong storms in the upper Miami Valley
into west central Ohio to the east of the more solid cloud cover
late this afternoon.

Axis of showers with embedded thunder from northern Indiana into
southern Illinois will slowly progress across the area
overnight and still be in eastern counties at the end of the
period. Lows will fall into the upper 50s behind the
precipitation but remain in the lower 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and possibly some thunder will still be ongoing at the
beginning of the period. This will move off to the east in the
morning. The cold front will continue to lag the main area of
precipitation and it is possible that there could be a bit of
further development along the front before it finally clears the
forecast area as well. Clouds will decrease during the afternoon
and into the evening. High pressure will build in behind the
front and skies will eventually become clear.

Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s with lows Tuesday night
falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level ridging develops on Wednesday and amplifies on Thursday
ahead of the next digging shortwave trough over the Central Plains.
This ridging along with a return southwesterly flow will allow
temperatures to return to above normal levels.

A frontal system ahead of the trough will progress into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday. Showers and storms will be likely into
Friday night depending on the timing of the front. Guidance
continues to diverge heading into the weekend, with uncertainty on
how quickly the frontal precipitation clears our area Saturday.

By Sunday the first system will likely have cleared our southeast
with a secondary front pushing through the Great Lakes. There may
not be much moisture with this reinforcing front, so have included
just a low chance of showers... which are maintained into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
slowly overspread the area from the west through the evening
hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunder chances should
gradually taper off through the evening as we lose the daytime
instability, so will only include a VCTS at the western TAF
sites for a few hours this evening. Showers will continue into
the overnight hours and then begin to taper off from the west as
the cold front moves in. VFR cigs early this evening will drop
into MVFR through late evening and then IFR later tonight. IFR
cigs will then trend back into MVFR through mid morning Tuesday
before scattering out with VFR conditions developing as we head
into Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR cigs possible Friday afternoon
into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL