National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIWX 140610
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday. Falling
  temperatures lakeside Sunday.

- Unseasonably mild through Wednesday with highs in the 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms litter the forecast Tuesday through
 Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tranquil weather this evening through much of Sunday with high
pressure currently centered over the Southeast US. A low is noted
over far southern Manitoba, whose cold front may serve as the focus
for a thunderstorm or two late Sunday afternoon. This will be
preceded by tumbling temperatures Lakeside while those inland bask
in mid-to-uppers 70s warmth all afternoon. The marginal risk of
severe weather has been removed by the SPC this afternoon; a fair
move given sparse coverage and a cap near 850mb. Upper-level forcing
is well removed from the modest cold front such that the cold front
is really the only trigger. If they occur, the thunderstorm risk is
maximized from about 5pm to 8pm EDT.

Rising heights aloft and warm air advection bring temperatures right
back to the 70s on Monday all the way through Wednesday. A surface
low emerges from the Rockies resulting in a notable severe weather
risk for the Central and Southern Plains on Monday. Eventually, this
low and severe weather risk reaches Illinois and western Indiana by
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will come and go through
Thursday night. There with be plenty of wind shear around
through Wednesday while instability varies. Lingering clouds and
showers could limit any severe weather risk for Wednesday.

Cooler on Thursday behind a cold front, but even colder air pushes
in Friday as a shortwave streaks in from the Canadian Rockies.
Temperatures at 850mb next weekend fall toward -8C; brrrr! Frost
will likely be a concern by Friday night and/or Saturday night,
following a rapid accumulation of Growing Degree Days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist this forecast period. A
sheared upper level short wave tracking across southern
Canada/northern Great Lakes will help drive a low level front
southward across Lower Michigan this morning. Currently
expecting the bulk of this frontogenesis-induced forcing will
bypass local area to the north and northeast. Eventually a sfc
cold front will drop across northern Indiana this evening, but
by the time better frontal forcing pushes southward across
terminals acting to weaken some warm low/mid level capping, sfc
based instability should be on the downward trend. This leads
to low confidence in any isolated showers and thunderstorms at
terminals, with better chance across west central Ohio.

For winds, will maintain LLWS mention through around 14Z this
morning. After this time low level mixing should be sufficient
to end LLWS criteria with mid morning to mid afternoon gusts of
25-30 knots (strongest at KFWA). Wind gusts will diminish
sharply toward evening as gradient becomes more "baggy" near the
sfc trough axis. An eventual wind shift to the northwest is
expected behind the cold front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili