Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 272335
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
635 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High pressure is moving into the region this evening. Expect clear
and cool conditions for tonight as we drop into the upper 30 to
lower 40s. There may be some light frost in areas especially
across the northern portions of the CWA. Thursday expect a sunny
and pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s.

Thursday night through Tuesday: Dry with a warming trend through
Monday. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid 70s. Highs Monday
will be in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances return Monday night and
continue into Tuesday night.

Come Thursday evening upper level troughing will have moved to the
east coast and mid level ridging wl be over the central CONUS
leaving us with continued northwest flow aloft. At the surface a
1022mb high is expected to be centered over Louisiana. Both the
surface high and the mid level ridge will shift east becoming
centered over our CWA Friday before shifting east to the east Friday
night. By Saturday surface ridging will set up across the Gulf
states from the east while our flow aloft becomes near zonal. A
closed low will be dropping down the west coast Saturday as well.
This closed low will drop over southern California Sunday and begin
inducing ridging aloft over our region. Low level moisture will
slowly increase over our CWA Sunday as well with lower 60 degree
dewpoints spreading across the CWA from the west. Monday the closed
low will be lifting out and opening up over the Four Corners region.
As this system lifts out to the northeast an associated surface low
will be tracking northeast and send a trailing clod front toward our
CWA. There remains significant timing differences with this cold
front but consensus suggests it will drop into northwest Mississippi
by Tuesday morning. The convection along and just ahead of the cold
front will move into our CWA Monday night. By Tuesday evening the
cold front is expected to still be northwest of the Natchez Trace
but the cold front is expected to be through our southeast most
zones by sunrise Wednesday. Considering the moisture and instability
that is anticipated to be in place ahead of the cold front, some
severe storm potential will likely exist but its a little too early
to speculate on mode, timing and area until there is greater
agreement in later model runs. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Expect VFR conditions and light northerly wind to continue through
the forecast period at all sites. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       41  67  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      41  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     40  67  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   43  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       41  68  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    40  65  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     39  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

MJH/22/EC


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