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000
FXUS62 KJAX 201754
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
154 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated to scattered convection is possible for this afternoon
and evening with developments most likely to occur over inland
southeast Georgia, with a potential for isolated strong storms
forming in the vicinity of areas north of the Douglas-Alma-Jesup
line as weak embedded short waves passing ahead of the advancing
cold front up to the north. Early morning patchy fog is possible
on Sunday primarily over northeast Florida with areas to the west
of the I-95 corridor. High temperatures today will reach up into
the upper 80s and lower 90s throughout the forecast area with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A cold front drapes itself across the GA/FL border Sunday morning
and pushes its way south through the region by Monday. Rain
showers and embedded thunderstorm chances of 20 to 30 percent
begin in SE GA and will spread south into NE FL with chances
increasing in the afternoon and evening region wide. Temperatures
will get into the mid to upper 80s for NE FL ahead of the front
while SE GA temperatures will be cooler in the mid 70s to 80s
behind the front. Temperatures Monday will be significantly
cooler with the frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 60s
for most of the region and some areas to the south hanging in in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

High pressure fills in behind the cold front, bringing drier
conditions and sunny to mostly sunny skies to the region. The
models show another cold front coming through late Wednesday
night/ Thursday morning but conditions look to be too dry to
produce any precipitation at this time. Temperatures will warm
throughout the week, getting back into the low to mid 80s by
Wednesday and the mid to upper 80s by Friday and Saturday inland
with temperatures cooler along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through much of the forecasted
period with a potential for early morning fog developments
affecting inland sites Sunday morning between approximately
08z-12z, with highest chances occurring at GNV and VQQ. Potential
for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening hours for SSI as widely scattered convection passes
through southeast Georgia.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Southerly sea breeze winds this afternoon and evening will turn to
become offshore later tonight. Cold front will begin to enter the
area waters Sunday and then shift well south of the area Monday.
Small craft advisory conditions may begin as early as Sunday night
as northerly winds increase. SCA looks probable for Monday til
Tuesday, with winds dropping of during the day on Tuesday, though
seas will remain elevated. Winds and seas continue to be diminish
by Wednesday as high pressure ridge will dominate the area by
then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast
FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower
end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk
appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and
smaller swell heights.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
today, 4/20, and will be close to record levels, mainly for
JAX and CRG.

                        Record High     Average 1st date
                        Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)   92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)    91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)    94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)      93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  79  53  68 /  30  80  40  10
SSI  66  83  56  66 /  20  60  60  30
JAX  64  87  57  67 /  10  50  70  40
SGJ  64  89  60  69 /  10  30  70  40
GNV  61  85  59  70 /   0  30  50  30
OCF  61  84  62  74 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$