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000
FXUS63 KJKL 201034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
634 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair and dry weather lasts through early in the new workweek.

- Frost will be possible in some sheltered valley locations Sunday
  morning, but is expected to be most widespread Sunday
  night/Monday morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning,
  especially through the valleys.

- Another cold front is forecast to pass late Tuesday through
  Wednesday morning, bringing a round of light rain along with a
  small thunderstorm chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

Early morning update is out, with the main change lowering the
hourly dew points in the grids quicker than before. Otherwise,
there are no changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

Lower-level cloud cover and some patchy fog diminishes through
this morning generally from northwest to southeast as a large
expansive surface high over the central US expands across the Ohio
River Valley, with fair conditions prevailing through Sunday. A
slight chance of rain is introduced clipping the far southern
portion of the CWA, mainly around the Middlesboro area, for a few
hours Sunday morning as a system slides by to the south, but even
here measurable rain chances are less than 20 percent.

The cooler and drier air mass and cloud cover from a passing
southern stream system will play a role in how low temperatures fall
tonight, and additionally whether the area sees any frost. COOP MOS
values continue to trend slightly warmer for lows tonight, likely
due to more extensive cloud cover, with most forecasts trending
toward the mid to upper 30s compared to lower to mid 30s. This will
likely favor frost formation tonight at least an on isolated to
widely scattered basis, but perhaps not on a widespread basis. Given
the low confidence, will allow day shift to assess the need for a
Frost Advisory for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

The period begins with a passing system that`s forecast to skirt the
CWA but models have been consistent with this system remaining south
of the area. To the west, surface high pressure will be nudging its
way eastward into the region bringing drier weather through the
middle of next week. However, persistent upper-level flow out the
northwest will keep CAA in place before flow begins to back to the
southwest. Surface high pressure, coupled with clear skies and CAA,
areas of near freezing temperatures and frost chances will increase
Monday morning and again Tuesday morning in the more sheltered
valleys.

Model continue to remain in agreement with a system moving across
southern Canada. While this occurs, a surface low and associated
cold front will cross across the northern CONUS. Ahead of the
approaching front, flow turns southwesterly and increasing
temperatures are forecast before the front crosses through the
Commonwealth late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front
but due a widespread lack of instability due to the timing of the
front, severe weather looks to be limited. High pressure builds back
into the region for late Wednesday with a slight chance of frost
Thursday morning in the more sheltered eastern valleys. Models remain
in agreement for the end of the period, with another system moving
out of the Central Plains with another cold front bringing shower
and thunderstorms chances for the end of the period.

Overall, frost chances will exist Monday morning and again Tuesday
morning before warming temperatures are expected ahead of a surface
cold front for Wednesday. Temperatures drop a little bit for
Thursday but begin to rebound Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

VFR conditions were occurring at TAF issuance with the exception
of KJKL where periods of fog were reducing visibility to MVFR/IFR
at times. Otherwise, a widespread overcast deck of ceilings
between 3500 and 5000 ft AGL prevailed. Clouds will slowly
diminish toward or after sunrise, with fog developing at terminals
if clearing were to occur before then yet this is too low
confidence to mention in any TAFs at this time. After skies clear
from northwest to southeast high clouds will begin to move over
the area from the west later this afternoon through the remainder
of the TAF period. North to northwest winds less than 10 kts will
becomes more northwesterly during the day Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP