430
FXUS63 KLBF 031058
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across
  southwest Nebraska.

- Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska
  this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have
  potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and
  south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out
  primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the
  Kansas border.

- After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and
  thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential
  for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83.

- Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a
  brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a
warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across
northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across
southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as
diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low
level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into
Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the
northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso
guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent
significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the
cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900
J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough
instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front
that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west
to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the
lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor
preventing a more serious convective threat today.

Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally
at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though
with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to
the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a
linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line
segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along
the southern flank building toward the greater instability
further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs
will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates
aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An
isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out
primarily further south closer to the better instability
heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early
tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and
western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend.

With the warm front lingering across the region today there will
be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the
lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of
I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in
the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s
to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

As we head into Sunday, ensemble guidance is in good agreement
in moving a strong upper low into the central Rockies and
becoming negatively tilted. This will drive development of a
deep surface low that will move into the Dakotas and swing a
strong cold front across the High Plains early next week. We
will start to feel the effects of this system on Sunday as the
low level wind field amplifies considerably and southerly flow
creates very windy conditions through Sunday night. The cold
front will then push across Nebraska on Monday with a lot of
synoptic energy setting the stage for a potential severe weather
outbreak Monday afternoon into Monday night, primarily across
the eastern half of Nebraska. There are a lot of variables in
play and small changes in timing or location will have a
significant impact on where severe weather will set up. Everyone
needs to keep a close eye on this system in the days ahead,
especially folks east of Hwy 83.

The vertically stacked closed low will be slow to move from the
High Plains into the Great Lakes region by the mid to latter
portion of next week. This will keep central and western
Nebraska breezy, cool, and unsettled with scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Gusty south winds will develop late this morning across
portions of central into southwest Nebraska. These winds will
be ahead of a line of thunderstorms that will cross the area mid
afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts will be likely as
the storms move through. An area of low ceiling (MVFR) will
spread across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills this behind
the precipitation this evening. These should clear late
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Taylor