000
FXUS63 KLBF 191731 CCA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, below normal temperatures today and Saturday with highs
  in the 40s.

- Light rain and snow tonight into Saturday. Greatest snow accumulations
  of an inch or two of wet snow for areas west of Highway 61,
  though minimal impacts are anticipated.

- Unsettled conditions continue next week with additional
  chances for precipitation and a gradual warming trend bringing
  high temperatures back to near and above normal.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed low
pressure centered over eastern Manitoba with a broad, low-amplitude
trough extending west to east from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Multiple shortwaves were noted
within the mean flow aloft, one of which was traversing across the
central and southern Rockies. Upper-level ridging was building
off the Pacific coast. These features have resulted in mainly
zonal flow aloft overspreading the central and northern CONUS.
At the surface, strong high pressure was noted along the lee of
the Rockies. As of 4 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 27 degrees
at Valentine and Broken Bow to 37 degrees at Imperial with
clouds building in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A generally quiet, but mostly cloudy Friday is in store across
western and north central Nebraska. High temperatures generally in
the mid to upper 40s will be felt today with the exception of
southwest Nebraska who will climb into the mid 50s. Low-level flow
has transitioned easterly in response to being on the southern
periphery of the previously mentioned surface high. With easterly
upslope flow increasing forcing for ascent, precipitation will begin
to develop this evening across northeast Colorado and northwest
Kansas, eventually expanding in coverage across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska. Did opt to remove PoPs during the day as CAMs
have trended drier, though some sprinkles/isolated rain showers
cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will begin to fall into the mid
30s at the onset of precipitation, supporting a brief window for
rain showers. However, with overnight lows quickly falling below
freezing, expect a transition to snow showers. While some
rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out during the day on Saturday,
temperatures climbing above freezing will be supportive of a
transition back to rain. Precipitation will begin to taper off
through the day on Saturday as forcing decreases with the
shortwave continuing eastward. In terms of snow amounts, soil
temperatures in the 40s and 50s will likely put a hamper on any
impactful accumulations. The NBM probabilities for >1" of snow
indicates a 40% or less probability across the southern
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska with probabilities for >2" of
snow dropping down to 35% or lower. While the potential for >2"
is non-zero, there is high confidence (>80%) that any snow that
does accumulate will remain a light dusting to 1" at best with
negligible impacts. Cloudy skies will continue on Saturday with
surface high pressure holding strong over the region. High
temperatures on Saturday will remain generally in the 40s with
some locations across north central reaching the low 50s.

Much more mild and seasonal temperatures return on Sunday with a
break from precipitation as the upper-level ridge nudges further
into the region. Widespread daytime highs in the 60s under mostly
sunny skies will be on tap for western and north central Nebraska.
However, as we head into next week, periodic precipitation chances
return across the area with a continued warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Heading into Sunday night, a robust (40+ kts) southeasterly low-
level jet (LLJ) will develop ahead of a surface low dropping
southeast out of western Canada with the surface pressure gradient
(SPG) tightening between the surface low and surface high pressure
holding strong over the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result,
southerly winds will strengthen overnight on Sunday with
widespread gusts up to 40 miles per hour. As the surface low
continues eastward, the SPG relaxes some allowing winds to
subside a bit during the day on Monday, though still breezy
gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour anticipated. Monday will also
be the start of sporadic precipitation chances through the week,
though the best chances don`t arrive until the end of the week.
Fortunately upper-level ridging will take hold resulting in a
warming trend which means snow will not be a word used in the
long term period. High temperatures generally in the 60s and
70s and overnight lows in the 40s will be common through the
week with rain and thunderstorm chances nearly each day. Despite
the spread amongst model solutions, an unsettled weather
pattern appears likely across the region. With details
remaining uncertain in regards to the overall synoptic pattern
evolution, cannot argue with NBM`s near daily blanket of slight
chance to chance PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An upper level disturbance across Colo this afternoon will move
east into nrn KS producing MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys in -SN
across swrn Nebraska. These flight conditions are already underway
across nern Colo and could begin to affect areas of swrn Nebraska
south of I-80 this aftn.

The best chance for compromised flight conditions appears to be
12z-18z Saturday. It is this time frame when the MVFR/IFR is
expected to spread north into the srn Panhandle.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...CDC