Text Products for FWS Issued by LOT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Versions: 1 2 3

000
FNUS73 KLOT 231811
FWSLOT

Spot Forecast for Charles Nelson...National Park Service
National Weather Service Chicago IL
Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
111 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (815) 834-0666 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Stiff north/northwest winds off the lake during the morning will
begin to ease back toward midday, but will average around 10 mph
through the afternoon. This will keep good smoke dispersal despite
mixing heights only around 2600 feet. On Thursday, winds will
begin to shift to the southeast as high pressure drifts by.
However, a bit of a lake breeze will kick in around midday, and
winds will shift more toward the east. No rain is expected
Wednesday through Thursday.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 42.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 18 mph at ignition...
                    decreasing to 12 to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....North 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 14 to 17 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL at ignition..
Smoke dispersal.....Good /52100 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........73  72  64  57  49  46  43  40  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............40  40  41  42  42  42  42  42  41
RH..............70  70  65  62  60  57  57  57  59
20 FT wind dir..000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
20 FT wind spd..18  18  18  17  17  16  15  14  13
20 FT wind gust.26  26  26  26  25  24  23  21  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.0
Transp wind dir.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
Transp wind spd.23  21  20  18  17  17  16  15  14
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52  47  45  44  41  38  33  31  25

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph late in the evening,
                    then becoming light overnight.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph shifting to the northeast 6
                    to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight,
                    then shifting to the east around 6 mph after 3
                    am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  5   12  18  25  35  44  54  55  56  57  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............41  41  40  39  38  38  37  37  37  37  37  36
RH..............62  63  66  69  71  73  74  76  77  78  78  77
20 FT wind dir..010 010 010 020 020 020 030 030 040 070 080 090
20 FT wind spd..10  8   7   7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.14  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.000 010 020 020 020 030 040 050 060 090 100 110
Transp wind spd.13  10  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20  14  7   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (20200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37  27  20  13  6   6   6   6   7   7   8   14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............37  38  41  44  48  50  52  53  54  55  55  55
RH..............76  72  66  60  55  52  51  50  48  47  47  48
20 FT wind dir..110 120 130 140 140 140 130 120 120 110 100 100
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.3
Transp wind dir.120 130 130 140 140 130 130 130 130 120 110 110
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   4   8   12  17  18  19  20  17  15  13  11

$$
Forecaster...Geelhart (WFO ILX)
Requested by...Kevin Chajka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412017.0/LOT
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
