970
FXUS64 KLUB 300538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Zonal flow aloft will continue over the forecast area tonight while
at the surface a low will develop in eastern Colorado. This will
allow a return of southerly and southeasterly surface winds
which will bring moisture back into the forecast area with surface
dewpoints climbing into the 50s and 60s east of the Caprock
escarpment. This will keep temperatures warmer across the Rolling
Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle in the mid 50s to
lower 60s while on the Caprock overnight temperatures will drop
into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The surface low will slide
southeast during the day tomorrow into the Oklahoma Panhandle
which will tighten the surface pressure gradient across our
forecast area and continue to drag a plume of surface moisture
northward. As mixing increases, drier air aloft will mix down to
the surface causing a diffuse dryline to setup near the edge of
the Caprock. Forcing along the dryline will be weak and large
scale lift won`t be strong as a weak disturbance moves overhead in
the nearly zonal flow. However, with temperatures warming into
the lower 90s for much of the area this will be sufficient for
thunderstorm development as it will be nearly uncapped with
convective temperatures around 90 degrees. Based on the uncapped
nature of the atmosphere scattered thunderstorms seem likely
during peak heating wherever the strongest thermals occur and
where surface dewpoints remain in the mid and upper 50s. If mixing
manages to lower dewpoints into the 40s across our area by the
afternoon, which some guidance shows, then thunderstorm
development will be less likely within our area. Assuming the
higher dewpoints remain, the environment will be characterized by
around 2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE along with around 30 kts of bulk shear
hence supercells would be the favored storm mode with large hail
and damaging winds the primary threat assuming that destructive
storm interference doesn`t occur. With relatively weak steering
flow, any right moving supercell will move fairly slow to the east
hence locally heavy rainfall may also be possible. Thunderstorm
activity will come to an end a few hours after sunset. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dryline convection will be possible once again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. As of current, models are in decent agreement with
having isolated convective initiation near/just east of the I27/US
87 corridor. Severe potential will still exist with this activity as
bulk shear will be in the realm of 30 kt with CAPE over 2500 J/kg.
Large hail over 2 inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph will be
the main concerns with storms that develop. Chances for severe
convection will be extremely limited Thursday as a cold front pushes
into the region Thursday morning. This will help cool temps from the
80s/90s Wednesday to the 70s Friday. Models disagree with
precip/convective chances late Friday afternoon and evening. The
ECMWF is relatively dry and has the surface cold front in eastern
New Mexico 00Z Saturday. The GFS has the frontal boundary/dry line
across our western zones by the same time with convection developing
along the boundary by 00Z. There is better agreement, however, with
precip chances late Saturday into Sunday morning. Surface flow is
progged to remain mostly out of the east to southeast as a
disturbance develops in the over head southwesterly upper flow
providing the region with elevated convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
three TAF sites. Low level wind shear out of the southwest at 40
knots around 800 feet is expected at all three sites this morning
as the low level jet ramps up. Southwesterly surface winds will
increase through the afternoon hours to around 15 to 20 knots with
higher gusts up to 30 knots possible. Winds will turn southerly
this evening and diminish to around 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but are
expected to remain south and east of all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...11