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000
FXUS64 KLZK 130529
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A calm and drier period is expected in the short term as high
pressure will takeover the weather pattern. Currently, northwesterly
winds could be gusty through the afternoon hours before becoming
calmer by this evening and overnight. Winds will become out of the
southwest by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to be more average to slightly above
average this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Quiet weather is expected to be in place at the start of the period
as mid-level ridging will be moving over the region and sfc ridging
will be positioned to the SE. This setup will provide well above
normal temperatures along with dry conditions. Farther to the west, a
mid-level cyclone will be moving inland along the CA coast. As this
system progresses east of the Four Corners on Monday, SW flow will
begin to intensify ahead of the system. Td values of 60 F or greater
are expected as far north as NE/IA.

As the H500 system intensifies and moves toward the Central/Southern
Plains, a corresponding sfc low and accompanying dryline/cold front
will push eastward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of these features from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Activity will initially remain west of the area but expect storms to
push into the state by early Tuesday. As the H500 cyclone lifts
northeast toward the Great Lakes Tue-Wed the trailing cold front
will push across the state. Another round of thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe, is expected to develop and push across the
state through Tuesday night.

A brief break in precip is expected across AR for parts of Wed-Thu
before a northern US H500 low is expected to move southeast across
the Great Lakes Thu-Fri. Another cold front is set to move across
the state and additional rain and thunderstorms are likely by late
week. Behind this cold front could be a decent push of April cold
air as sfc ridging tries to sink south toward the state. We could
see lows in the 30s/40s F just beyond the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds overnight will become SWrly between 10 and 20 kts during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         82  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    81  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  84  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     82  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      81  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        81  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     81  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   84  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         83  57  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      80  59  81  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70