Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211030 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
520 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A front was nearly stationary across northern/eastern Arkansas
this morning. Drier air was noted behind the front, with dewpoints
in the 20s/30s. Meanwhile, a storm system aloft was over the
southern Plains, and will bring unsettled weather tonight and
Friday.

Rain/isolated thunderstorms will accompany the system, mainly in
central and southern sections of the state. Farther north, dry
conditions will keep showers mostly isolated during the event.

Overall, there will not be a lot of rain in the near term. Amounts
will range from nothing up to a tenth of an inch in the north to
quarter to half inch totals toward the Louisiana border.

The system will exit to the east Friday night, and any rain will
come to an end. That will result in a pleasant beginning to the
extended period.

As far as temperatures, readings will be mild today, and generally
above average. The same will be true across the north on Friday,
with below average readings farther south given clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The weekend looks to remain dry for most areas as AR will be between
systems...with a departing upper shortwave trough over the SERN
CONUS at the start of the long term period...and ridging across the
central CONUS. POPs increase late Sun as a larger scale trough over
the Rockies moves east into the Plains. As this happens...upper
shortwaves will lift NE downstream of the main upper trough
axis...with increasing SWRLY flow over the central/SRN Plains by
Mon. A cold front will move ESE across AR on Mon into Mon
night...well south of a SFC low lifting NNE over the NRN MS River
Valley region. SHRA/TSRA will become likely on Mon into Mon
afternoon/evening along/ahead of this cold front. Chances for precip
decrease on Tue as the front moves east of AR. Mainly dry conditions
will then be seen to wrap up the forecast by the middle of next week.

Chances for strong to SVR convection look a bit limited at this time
on Mon...mainly limited by a lack of instability. Most of the energy
will also pass to the north of AR as well. However...there may be a
window Mon afternoon across ERN/SERN AR where some strong to SVR
storms could develop. Details remain uncertain this far out in time
on the overall SVR Wx threat however.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Clouds will thicken today, but conditions will stay VFR. In
central and southern Arkansas, clouds will lower enough tonight
to create MVFR conditions, and there will be areas of rain/patchy
fog as well. Any showers will be isolated across the north, with
VFR conditions remaining. The wind will be east/southeast at
5 to 10 knots today, and 3 to 7 knots tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  48  66  43 /   0  10  30   0
Camden AR         71  51  61  46 /  10  80  80  10
Harrison AR       66  45  68  37 /  10  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    69  51  66  46 /  10  50  60   0
Little Rock   AR  70  52  66  47 /  10  30  50  10
Monticello AR     71  53  60  48 /  10  60  80  10
Mount Ida AR      69  50  67  45 /  20  50  50   0
Mountain Home AR  65  44  69  38 /   0  10  30  10
Newport AR        66  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     71  52  61  47 /  10  40  70  10
Russellville AR   69  50  69  43 /  10  30  40   0
Searcy AR         67  48  65  43 /  10  20  40  10
Stuttgart AR      69  53  61  46 /  10  30  60  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...46


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