965
ACUS11 KWNS 020255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020255
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Western and Central
KS...Southwest/South-Central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...174...

Valid 020255Z - 020430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172, 174
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging gusts will
continue, with the tornado threat expected to gradually diminish
over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Two separate convective regimes currently exist across
the region, a discrete mode regime across central KS and a more
linear, forced regime from far northeast CO into northwestern KS and
southwest NE. A pair of persistent supercells remain within the
discrete mode regime across central KS, although recent trends
suggest each of these supercells may be weakening and becoming
increasingly dissociated from the boundary layer. Even so, moist
low-level flow will continue to advect northward amid a
strengthening low-level jet, which will likely allow storms to
persist for a bit longer before gradually weakening.

Several bowing segments exist farther north from far northeast CO
into far northwest KS and far southwest NE. This cluster is expected
to continue eastward, with some additional southeastward development
along the front possible as well. Steep mid-level lapse rates will
continue to promote the development of large hail, with some strong
gusts possible as well, particularly on the southern edge of this
cluster and when any storm mergers occur.

..Mosier.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38549857 38389994 38900151 39110272 39460288 39830194
            40180137 40430108 40590074 40660003 40539947 40009840
            38549857