101
FXUS62 KMFL 271658
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1258 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

South Florida sits on the periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the eastern seaboard of the United States. An
area of low pressure over the central United States will begin to
pinch the high southeastward. With the persistent easterly wind
flow around the high, the region will remain in a warm, moist
airmass through the weekend. Shallow Atlantic showers will be
possible through Sunday with on and off light rain in the forecast
with a focus for Southeast Florida.

As the gradient tightens with the low approaching from the
northwest and the center of the high is pinched closer to our
area, the winds will continue to build through this afternoon into
tonight. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph here at midday could be 35 to 45
mph along the Atlantic coast tonight into Sunday morning.
Accordingly, a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal Miami-
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties.

Temperatures remain warm with widespread 80s for afternoon maximum
values this afternoon and Sunday. Dewpoint values have been
trending towards the drier end of guidance, so favored the NBM
10th percentile in a blend of the NBM and previous forecast for
continuity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A rather stout mid level ridge over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday
will slowly start to shift into the western Atlantic heading into
Tuesday and into the middle of the week. At the surface, a strong
area of high pressure off of the Southeast coast will remain in
place through the middle of the week, however, it will be weakening
heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for the pressure
gradient across South Florida to decrease which will cause the winds
to gradually diminish as they veer and become east southeasterly.
While most of the region will remain dry with high pressure nearby,
some lower level moisture will be taking place during this time
frame. This will be just enough moisture to support some isolated
shower development along the east southeasterly breeze mainly over
the Atlantic waters and east coast. With instability lacking across
the region, any shower that does develop will be low topped and
short lived. High temperatures through the early and middle portion
of the week will generally rise to around 80 along the east coast
and into the upper 80s to around 90 across Southwest Florida.

The weather pattern does not change much heading towards the end of
the week as mid level ridging continues across South Florida. At the
surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will keep easterly
wind flow in place during this time frame. While most areas will
remain dry, isolated shower activity still cannot be ruled out along
the easterly breeze over the Atlantic waters and east coast. High
temperatures towards the end of the week will start to warm up a bit
as mid level ridging strengthens. These temperatures will rise into
the lower 80s along the east coast, and into the lower 90s across
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Generally VFR through some Atlantic showers could briefly impact
terminals. Gusty easterly wind will be sustained through most of
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Conditions will deteriorate as gusty winds develop with frequent
gusts to gale over the Atlantic waters west of the Providence
Channel tonight. In addition, seas in the Atlantic will rise to
8-10 ft by Sunday. These elevated winds and seas should begin to
subside by the early to middle portion of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coast as
gusty onshore winds will be present through the weekend. In
addition, these gusty winds will assist in the formation of larger
waves in the surf zone up to 7-8ft this weekend. Therefore, a high
surf advisory is in effect for Broward and Palm Beach county beaches
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  81  72  81 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     70  82  68  83 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        72  83  71  83 /  20  10  10  10
Homestead        71  81  71  82 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  80  72  81 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  73  80  72  81 /  20  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   72  83  71  84 /  20  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  71  80  70  81 /  10  10  10  10
Boca Raton       71  82  71  82 /  20  10  10  10
Naples           69  88  68  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG