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000
FXUS62 KMHX 141900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move into the region from the north
Monday evening, eventually lifting back north as a warm front on
Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the
Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Dry and quiet conditions will persist tonight
with high pressure firmly established offshore. Atms shouldn`t
completely decouple, with swrly breezes at 5 mph or higher
remaining, so it will be quite mild despite clear skies. Low
temps will range from 55-60 interior to lows 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Dry airmass remains in place, despite swrly
flow cont on Mon. Most models cont to be too optimistic (high)
with TD vals, esp NBM, so have blended heavily with
HRRR/ARW/CMCreg, which have handled this air mass best over the
last several days. Dropped fcst RH`s some 7-10% from where they
were (see fire wx section below). Highs will be quite warm with
thicknesses soaring to aoa 1400M, translating to mid/upr 80s
interior. Immediate coast (Crystal Coast beaches and most of the
srn/ctrl OBX) will top out around 70 at best as H2O temps are
still well down in the 60s. With the stronger thermal gradient
in place, swrly breezes will be stronger nearshore and along the
coast, gusting around 20 mph or more in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Had to make some tweaks to the forecast with
the biggest change occuring on Monday as trends have indicated
an increasing thunder threat with the potential for a few storms
to be strong to severe in nature.

Mon night...Upper level pattern is denoted by NW flow aloft
with both northern and southern stream jets encroaching on the
Carolinas Mon evening. Weak mid level shortwave will be making
its way southeastwards reaching the area by Mon night while at
the surface a weakening cold front will dive S`wards and reach
the VA/NC border by Mon evening and eventually stall along the
NC/SC border late Mon night. This will promote shower and
thunderstorm development in VA with this activity then tracking
SE`wards into NC Mon evening.

Out ahead of this front, moisture will pool with PWATs increasing
closer to 1-1.25 inches across portions of southern VA and northern
NC. In addition to this, strong daytime heating will result in ML
CAPE`s around 500-1000 J/kg, with both NBM probs and GEFS probs
noting a greater than 50% chance for CAPES higher than 500 J/kg
especially across counties north of Hwy 264. Mid level lapse
rates will also be relatively high for this time of year getting
to about 7-8 C/km by Mon afternoon. With showers and
thunderstorms entering into this environment there is the
potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe in
nature with storm mode likely being a mix of individual cells
and small linear clusters. Strong winds (40-60 mph) and small
hail will be the primary hazards within the strongest storms.

The one limiting factor to all of this will be the weaker wind
shear over the region as 0-6 km shear will remain closer to 20-
30 kts. As a result this forecast is low probability but higher
impact at the moment with locations north of Hwy 264 recently
added to a marginal risk for severe weather by SPC (level 1 out
of 5). Otherwise high temps get into the mid to upper 80s inland
and into the 70s along the OBX, while lows dip down into the
60s.

Tue and Wed... By Tues upper level ridging builds over the
Eastern Seaboard while upper level troughing enters the Central
CONUS. At the surface stalled frontal boundary lifts N`wards as
a warm front Tuesday bringing a threat for some shower and
thunderstorm activity as lift and moisture begin to gradually
increase across ENC with the area likely remaining mo dry on Wed
as high pressure ridging briefly makes a reappearance across
the area. Temps generally remain above avg through midweek with
the warmest temps at occuring on Tue for everywhere but the
NOBX where NE flow may keep things much cooler here.

Thurs into next weekend...Evolution of the late week forecast
becomes a bit murkier with respect to exact details, but the
overall evolution hasn`t changed much. Expect an upper level
trough with associated shortwave to approach the Eastern
Seaboard on Thursday and move through the region by Fri. At the
surface this will bring a weakening cold front across the area
Thurs with a stronger one moving across ENC on Fri. Not
expecting much in the way of precip with the first front
outside of some additional cloud cover, with a better chance of
seeing some precip on Fri with the second front. Given the
large spread in guidance have capped PoP`s at slight chances for
now. Once better agreement amongst the models begins will
likely begin increase PoP chances across the area. There is some
potential for a third frontal boundary to impact the area next
weekend, however confidence is too low to mention any details
outside of the threat for more unsettled weather. Temps continue
to remain well above avg through Fri before cooling off behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Sun...VFR SKC through the TAF pd as high pressure
continues to dominate. Winds gusting around 15 kt this afternoon
drop back to 5-10 kt tonight, then inc to around 15+ kt Monday.
LLWS develops overnight with weak inversion in place.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the TAF period with the only chances for sub VFR
conditions being within any shower or thunderstorm that makes
its way into ENC Mon evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Winds will increase late afternoon through
evening to SW 10-20 kts. Gusts remain below 25 kt as marine
inversion will be present. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through
this evening, and then will increase to 3-5 ft by late tonight.
A tempo break in the stronger gradient Mon am, then by afternoon
with strengthening land/sea thermal gradient, winds inc to 10-20
kt again, highest nearshore.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun... A cold front tracks S`wards Mon night
shifting the winds behind the front to a N`rly direction at 5-10
kts. This frontal passage also has a chance to bring some
shower and thunderstorm activity with it as it makes its way
across our waters. Front eventually stalls around Raleigh Bay
and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Tue allowing winds to
become S-SW`rly across all waters at 10-20 kts by Wed with these
winds persisting into the end of the period. Seas will
generally remain around 3-5 ft across our coastal waters on Mon,
lowering down to 2-4 ft on Tue and remaining around 2-4 ft into
the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3 PM Sun...Similar fire wx conditions for Monday
afternoon with low RH vals in the 20s% expected, along with very
warm temps in the upper 80s and swrly wind gusts of 15-20 mph.
The seabreeze gradient will be tight, with areas along and east
of the seabreeze experiencing RH`s quite a bit higher, so fire
wx conditions for coastal counties not as much a concern.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX