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000
FXUS62 KMLB 121912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

...Dry and Fire Sensitive Weather is Expected into the Weekend...
...Becoming Poor to Hazardous over the Local Atlantic Waters
Tonight...
...Temperatures Warm Sunday and into Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Currently-Tonight... Current GOES-16 satellite imagery and radar
imagery shows dry conditions across east central Florida and
clear skies. Temperatures are currently observed in the mid 70s to
low 80s with west to northwest winds at around 8 to 14mph and
gusts up to 25mph. Winds are expected to veer northwest overnight
as high pressure builds over the Deep South. Cooler air will
arrive overnight with lows expected to reach the low 50s to near
60 degrees under clear skies.

Saturday... High pressure (1026mb) will continue to influence the
region into Saturday as the high builds over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and Deep South into Saturday. Dry weather is forecast
which will combine with dry antecedent soils and result in fire
sensitive weather again Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to
reach the mid 70s to along the coast and the upper 70s to low 80s
inland west of I-95.

Sat Night-Sun Night...Mid-level ridging very slowly begins to
amplify from the southwest GoMex northward through the Plains. This
will put the FL peninsula in NWRLY flow with occasional weak mid-
level impulses traversing the region. At the surface, weak east-west
oriented ridging will align across the central peninsula with
extensions across the Gulf and western Atlc. Any fronts will steer
clear (north) of the area with a weakening pressure gradient in
place and lighter winds. MSunny/MClear skies with dry conditions
forecast day/night. Cool overnight mins into Sun morning, mainly L-
M50s, except some U40s within play for normally cooler locales over
the interior, and U50s along the Space/Treasure coasts. Afternoon
highs on Sun in the U70s to near 80F along the coast with L80s (a
few M80s) into the interior. Slightly warmer overnight with lows
into Mon morning in the M-U50s areawide and perhaps some L60s
barrier islands.

Mon-Fri...The aforementioned mid-level ridging will build eastward
across the GoMex and Deep South thru mid-week before flattening as
it is beat down by shortwave energy Wed night-Thu as the flow
becomes zonal, once again. Surface high pressure is centered over
the western Atlc and associated ridging lifts northward early next
week, then gets knocked back south on Thu with the approach of a
cold front that will pass down the FL peninsula late in the day on
Fri thru Fri night. The atmosphere still remains somewhat moisture-
starved and for now we keep the extended dry. Surface winds do
become onshore thru mid-week, then S/SW into Fri (pre-frontal), then
winds quickly veer to NW/N (post-frontal). Warming trend in store
areawide with 80s and perhaps some L90s (interior) Wed-Fri.
Overnight mins in the U50s to L60s Tue morning, then 60s areawide
over the remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. West to
northwest winds at 12-14kts with gusts to 22kts are forecast at
TAF sites north of KVRB through this evening. East to northeast
winds this afternoon south of KMLB will veer offshore and weaken
overnight. Winds are then forecast to veer north-northeast into
Saturday afternoon at 8-12kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Currently-Saturday... Poor to hazardous conditions are expected
to develop late this evening and into the overnight hours. Winds
are forecast to veer north-northwest and increase tonight at
20-25kts offshore and over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters
with seas building to 5 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory goes
into effect after 10pm tonight over the offshore Volusia and
Brevard county waters and across the Treasure Coast waters after
1AM. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the nearshore
Volusia and Brevard county waters for northwest winds increasing
to 15 to 20kts tonight and seas up to 3-5ft. Conditions are
forecast to gradually improve into Saturday afternoon.

Sat Night-Wed...Improving boating conditions with a weaker pressure
gradient in place (high pressure over the area) and wind speeds AOB
15 kts, but could approach a little higher values Tue night-Wed as
high pressure ridging breaks down and pushes seaward. Initial seas
up to 3 ft near shore and 4-6 ft Gulf Stream will subside 2-4 ft
into Sun, 2-3 ft Sun night-Tue, then 3-4 ft Tue night-Wed.
Conditions mainly dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sun...Fire sensitive conditions continue with aftn min RHs in the
M20s-M30s W of I-95 and 35-45pct near the coast. Vegetation overall
remains fairly dry with Significant Fire Potential in the Moderate
category. 20FT ERLY winds mainly 5-10 mph with some occasional
higher gusts.

Extended...Continued fire sensitive with Significant Fire Potential
Moderate most days. 20FT ERLY winds on Mon up to around 10 mph, ESE
on Tue/Wed 10-15 mph. Some higher gusts can be expected. Min RH
values L-U30s W of I-95 on Mon-Wed. Conditions forecast to remain
dry well into the extended. Next forecast front on late Fri, but
slim chances for precip at this point with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  57  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  55  77  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  54  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  54  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  53  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling