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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today-Tonight...High pressure builds into the Southeast US today, as
much drier air moves into the area behind yesterday`s cold front.
Northwest to west-northwesterly winds today around 10-15mph will
advect PWATs 0.5" or less into east central Florida through this
afternoon. Though winds will have decreased compared to Thursday,
gusts to around 20-25mph will remain possible. Clear skies are
forecast, with no precipitation. Temperatures will be near-normal
this afternoon, as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Use
caution along the Treasure Coast today, due to a High Risk of
dangerous rip currents.

Tonight, dry conditions and clear skies prevail. Northwesterly winds
become 10mph or less after sunset, then veer northerly towards
daybreak. Drier air will help overnight temperatures fall around 5-
10 degrees below normal, with morning lows reaching the lower to mid-
50s.

Saturday-Sunday... An upper level trough over the Northeast US on
Saturday will shift east and northward, moving out into the Atlantic
off the Canadian coast by Sunday. Surface high pressure will build
eastward over the Deep south on Saturday, shifting offshore the
Florida eastern coast on Sunday. Locally, winds will veer northeast
on Saturday as the high pressure builds in, with speeds around 10
mph and gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible into the afternoon, before
winds veer east to southeast on Sunday as the high pressure shifts
eastwards just off the eastern Florida coast. Sunny skies and dry
conditions will prevail with temperatures on a slight warming trend
through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s
east of I-95 and mid 70s to low 80s west of I-95 on Saturday, and
upper 70s to low 80s east of I-95 and low to mid 80s west of I-95 on
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Saturday night,
and upper 50s to low 60s east of I-95 and low to mid 50s west of I-
95 on Sunday night.

Monday-Thursday...Mid and upper level ridge will build across the
GOMEX and over Florida peninsula through mid week, all the while
shifting slightly eastward. Surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic waters will build westward over the Florida peninsula and
into the GOMEX and Deep South through midweek. Locally, winds will
be east to southeast at 10-15mph each afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph possible. Dry conditions will prevail through mid week, with no
mentionable rain chances through the period. Sunny to partly sunny
skies will continue to dominate with temperatures well above normal
for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s
east of I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon, with
low 90s possible in the far western interior on Thursday. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s on Monday night, and
low to mid 60s on Tuesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions and clear skies prevailing. Gusty northwest to west-
northwest winds today around 10-15kts, with gusts 20-25kts this
afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5-10kts this evening and veer
northerly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today-Tonight...Lingering hazardous boating conditions prior to
sunrise this morning will improve today, but remain generally poor
offshore. Northwesterly winds up to 20kts and seas up to 6ft
offshore this morning diminish to 10-15kts and 3-5ft across the
local Atlantic waters by this afternoon. The current Small Craft
Advisory offshore is set to expire at 8AM. Small craft will need to
exercise caution near inlets along the Treasure Coast today, due to
a long period swell.

Then, a wind surge overnight is expected to once again increase
winds to 15-20kts as they veer northerly towards daybreak. Small
craft will need to exercise caution overnight. Seas will build to
6ft in the Gulf Stream overnight, while remaining 3-5ft elsewhere.

Saturday-Tuesday... Poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream
waters will continue on Saturday before boating conditions
improving and becoming favorable into early week. North to
northeast winds on Saturday at 10-15 KT will veer east to
southeast on Sunday as surface high pressure moves offshore the
eastern Florida coast with winds remaining southeast into early
week. Seas will be 4-6ft on Saturday before subsiding to 2-4ft on
Sunday, and 2-3ft on Monday and Tuesday. No rain chances through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today...Near-Red Flag conditions today, especially north and west of
I-4, where winds will approach 15mph. Overall the wind forecast
today calls for winds 10-14mph, but gusts of 20-25mph are possible.
Northwest to west-northwest winds will advect in much drier air,
with min RH falling to around 30-35% from Brevard/Osceola Counties
northward and 25-30% for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
The limiting factors for a Red Flag warning are that locations north
and west of I-4 look to remain just below the needed sustained 15mph
winds and the locations with the strongest winds are forecast to
have min RHs just above 35%. Nonetheless, very sensitive fire
weather conditions will occur today. Afternoon dispersions look to
be very good to excellent, so control issues are likely.

Saturday-Sunday... Fire sensitive to critical fire weather
conditions are forecast into the weekend. Drier air will remain in
place across east central Florida. North to northeast winds on
Saturday will be 8-12 KT before becoming east to southeast on Sunday.
Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible each afternoon. Minimum
RH values are expected to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s west of I-
95 and the mid 30s to low 40s along the coast on Saturday. Min RH
values are then forecast to reach low 30s to low 40s west of I-95,
and low to mid 40s east of I-95 on Sunday. There is a Moderate Risk
for Significant Fire Potential across all the east central Florida
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... Fire sensitive weather conditions are forecast to
continue through mid-week. East to southeast winds will remain in
place through the time period, with speeds generally 10-15 KT.
Minimum RH values are forecast to fall into the low 30s to low 40s
west of I-95, and low to mid 40s east of I-95 on Monday, and mid 30s
to mid 40s east of I-95, and generally in the 50s to low 60s east of
I-95 on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a Moderate Risk for
Significant Fire Potential across all the east central Florida on
Monday, and north of the Treasure Coast on Tuesday amd Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  55  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  57  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  57  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  83  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  78  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  81  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  54  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leahy
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy