600
FXUS64 KMOB 141133
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Back edge of precipitation aligned along the Gulf coast from
Baldwin county eastward to the western FL Panhandle will continue
a slow eastward translation this morning. Cig bases generally at
MVFR categories. Vsby ok. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Radar shows axis of precipitation is making headway to the east
and with the threat of flooding rainfall ending, the flash flood
watch has been cancelled. A wake low is forecast to move across
the deep south this morning which will contribute to a short term
duration wind event, mostly impacting the coastal counties where
winds will likely gust to wind advisory criteria. The wind
advisory goes to noon and expect winds to decrease into the
afternoon as the low moves away. Cold front makes passage tonight
with drier air filtering in across the forecast area. Wednesday is
rain-free.

Daytime highs in the lower/mid 80s today warm into the mid/upper
80s Wednesday. Overnight lows in the lower half of the 60s
interior and in the lower 70s closer to the coast. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The dry weather pattern will persist through Thursday as an upper
ridge to our west slips eastward over the southeast states. The
next storm system will move in from the west Thursday night and an
upper trough over the Great Plains shifts slowly eastward.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread
eastward across the forecast area through the overnight period as
several upper disturbances moving in the west-southwest flow aloft
brings a round of elevated convection.

Low temperatures Wednesday night will be near to slightly above
normal, ranging from around 60 degrees well inland to near 70
degrees along the coast. Low temperatures Thursday night will
trend warmer to be 4 to 9 degrees above normal, ranging from
around 65 degrees well inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
High temps on Thursday will be around 3 degrees above normal in
the mid to upper 80s.

Along the beaches, a Moderate rip current risk will occur through
the short term. /22

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The southern stream remains active as the aforementioned upper
storm system with more rounds of shortwave energy traverse over
our region through the remainder of the week. Increased ascent
along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the lower levels will
resulting in an increase in showers/storms for Friday. There are
some indications of yet another heavy rain event possibly setting
up to close out the week. As far as strong to potentially severe
storms, guidance points to Friday. All depends on position of the
warm-front late in the week, but at this moment it appears SBCAPE
values on Friday should be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range along with
marginal shear with Bulk Shear values in the 45 to 55 knot range.
This may result in a few marginal to isolated severe storms that
we will need to be monitoring for.

Daytime highs Friday and Saturday will be near to slightly below
normal in the low to mid 80s. Highs temperatures trend warmer
early next week to be 2 to 7 degrees above normal into the upper
80s to lower 90s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A short duration strong wind event is expected over area waters
through mid morning with a wake low passage. Wind gusting to gale
force likely. A cold front makes passage tonight and with a weak
pressure pattern following, winds and seas lower going into the
middle of the week. The next weather system approaches late in the
week, bringing moderate onshore flow and a return to rain
chances. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  65  88  64  87  69  85  71 /  30  10   0   0  10  40  70  40
Pensacola   82  70  87  67  86  73  84  74 /  70  20   0   0  10  30  60  50
Destin      81  72  85  70  84  74  83  75 /  70  20   0   0  10  20  60  50
Evergreen   83  63  87  61  89  66  85  67 /  40  20   0   0   0  40  80  60
Waynesboro  83  61  86  61  88  65  82  66 /  30  10   0   0  10  50  80  40
Camden      82  62  85  60  87  66  81  66 /  50  20   0   0   0  50  80  60
Crestview   81  65  88  62  90  66  87  70 /  70  20   0   0   0  20  70  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-650-655-
     670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632-
     634-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob