Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FNUS73 KMPX 061245
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Afton Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
745 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
For Afton RX, Breezy southeast winds develop by late
morning, with sporadic winds gusts over 30 mph possible.
Increasing humidity with the southeast flow will keep RH values
fairly high however, with min values around 40%. RH values could
dip into the upper 30 percents this afternoon. Sustained winds
stay in the 15 to 20 mph range with transport 20 to 25 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 14 mph at
ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 14 to 18
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /47200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /91100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61 64 66 69 70 70 71 71 70 69 66 63
RH..............60 52 47 40 42 41 39 38 39 39 42 50
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..14 14 16 16 17 18 18 18 16 16 16 16
20 FT wind gust.21 21 24 24 26 28 28 28 24 24 24 24
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.21 23 23 22 23 23 24 25 24 20 17 20
Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to
around 33 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (11300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (55-65 percent). Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
south 12 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (104100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 21 mph shifting to the
southwest 17 to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Nathan Renk
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413245.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nate.Renk@state.mn.us